The Meloni government should have been a disaster for international relations, especially with the European Union, and for our country’s economy. But that was not the case and the umpteenth denial of the ghosts agitated by the left before the political elections of last September arrived. Italian GDP, informs Istat, should in fact grow both in 2023 (+1.2%) and in 2024 (+1.1%), although slowing down compared to 2022. In the two-year forecast, GDP growth would be supported mainly by the contribution of net internal demand from inventories (+1.0 percentage points in 2023 and +0.9 pp in 2024) and by the more limited contribution of net external demand (+0.3 and +0.2pp). In 2023, inventories are expected to make a negative marginal contribution of -0.1 pp, followed by zero one in 2024. Consumption by resident households and ISPs is expected to show, in line with the evolution of economic activity, an increase in 2023 (+ 0.5% ), which will strengthen next year (+1.1%), thanks to the further reduction in inflation associated with a gradual recovery in wages and the improvement of the labor market.
Investments will maintain high growth rates in relation to the other components: 3.0% in 2023 and 2.0% in 2024, slowing down in relation to the two previous years. In the foreseen two-year period, employment, measured in work units (AWU), will grow in line with GDP (+1.2% in 2023 and +1% in 2024). The improvement in employment will be accompanied by a reduction in the unemployment rate, which will drop to 7.9% this year and 7.7% the following year. The downward trajectory of inflation, favored by the fall in energy prices and the restrictive policies implemented by the central banks, will be reflected in a reduction in the dynamics of the deflator of resident household expenditure both in the current year (+5.7%) and , to a greater extent, in 2024 (+2.6%). The projected scenario is based on assumptions favorable to the price reduction trajectory in the coming months and the implementation of the public investment plan scheduled for the biennium. The paper sings.
Source: IL Tempo
Emma Fitzgerald is an accomplished political journalist and author at The Nation View. With a background in political science and international relations, she has a deep understanding of the political landscape and the forces that shape it.
