With the outbreak of war in Ukraine in February 2022, the “peace movement” rhetoric has returned in many European countries and beyond. The protagonist of the demonstrations and positions taken, the movement opposing arms shipments and support to Ukraine seems to fit partially into the 5 Star Movement’s electoral pool, but not only. So how successful can a hypothetical “Peace List” be in elections?
Not so much, according to swg’s latest poll for TgLa7. Only 3 percent would have voted for him with a high probability. Moderate or unlikely at 2 percent. However, the starting point of the votes is interesting: 31 percent of the votes would come from the Democratic Party voters, who are the majority. Instead, only 19 percent of the votes can come from the 5 Star Movement voters, who, unlike the Democratic Party, have a clear and definite position on this issue. 32 percent of those who will vote for the list do not have a clear political color.
Majority on the rise (thanks to FdI), opposition on the decline
Good news for the first majority party, which remains permanently the top party in the country. Brothers of Italy registered 0.5 percent growth over previous estimates. Despite protracted disagreements among the majority, Meloni is gaining half a point of confidence: there are few voices talking about a future change of government between the Santanchè case and justice reform in order to maintain a high consensus by removing potential “disturbing elements”. Exactly tomorrow, July 26, 2023, the Minister of Tourism will be subject to a vote of no confidence, which he will likely get over, but it has not been ruled out that – amongst the various rumors that followed – he could receive an official resignation request from the tenant of Palazzo Chigi in September.
Conversely, the Democratic Party slumped 0.4 percent in a week, stopping at 19.6 percent and amassing another pullback. It remains the second party in Italy – Schlein’s – but the gap with its main competitor is closing more and more. In fact, the 5 Star Movement rose just 0.1 percent to settle at 15 percent.
No good news for the rest of the majority parties. Lega and Forza Italia fell 0.2 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively, in a week, to 9.6 percent for Carroccio and 7.2 percent for the new party headed by Antonio Tajani. On the (former) Pole-Third front, Action is chasing power fans at +0.2 percent, but that’s not enough and stops at 3.4 percent. On the other hand, Italia Viva fell 0.2 percent as +Europe (0.1).
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Source: Today IT
Emma Fitzgerald is an accomplished political journalist and author at The Nation View. With a background in political science and international relations, she has a deep understanding of the political landscape and the forces that shape it.
