European elections, all against all: parties in no particular order

After the summer, the hourglass will begin to mark the way towards next June, the month in which the European elections will take place and it will be a watershed both in defining relations between the poles and, obviously, for the future government community. The voting system is proportional, so each party (with a few exceptions, as we’ll see) will run alone. And so the story is about the balance, even within the parties that the results of the polls will define and about future post-voting alliances in the European context. This last theme guides the debate in the centre-right. The hypothetical starting scheme is that of an alliance between the EPP, the Liberals and the Conservatives (although there are doubts, among the Populares, about some identity parties in the Conservative family). A scenario that, however, is also at the mercy of national results that establish consensus oscillations between individual forces. In Spain, for example, the Popular Party achieved an excellent position, winning numerous seats. And instead, it fell far short of the expectations of Vox, a conservative force in Europe allied with Giorgia Meloni. This year, it will be necessary to analyze another result, the Polish one, where the antagonism between a party of the EPP family, the “Civic Platform”, and the “Pis” of the conservative area will further clarify the picture.

Here, right now, there are two views in the center right. One of them is expressed by Antonio Tajani, who looks precisely at the embrace between popular, conservative and liberal. Tajani, who has been a reference for the EPP in Italy for thirty years, did not express any impediment to the possible presence of the League in this alliance. The problem, however, arises with the Via Bellerio party’s allies in the Identity and Democracy group, namely Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National movement and the German AFD. There is a clear barrier in relation to them, in the EPP, at the central level. While Matteo Salvini still doesn’t want to give up understanding with these two forces. As for Giorgia Meloni (who leads the conservative family) and the Brothers of Italy, apparently the theme of alliances will be a dossier assigned to the post-election phase 2. Furthermore, the scenario in terms of the dynamics of the individual parties is important. Forza Italia with the European elections will face the first major test after the death of Silvio Berlusconi, to perpetuate the essence of a center-right liberal proposal and continue to be the pillar of the EPP in Italy. In this scenario, certainly the disintegration of the Third Pole can help indirectly, because it actually crushes the competition at the center. Then there are the Brothers of Italy and the League. Giorgia Meloni’s party will face the European challenge after more than a year and a half at the head of the Executive, and will also be a “test” that will measure the evolution from a pure opposition party to a party fully rooted in government practices. An evolution that could leave some “part” of the right flank uncovered, a reflection of the party’s tradition.

Matteo Salvini’s League could aim to conquer this more identitary area, perhaps aiming to repeat the path taken, with some efficiency, about ten years ago. Chapter Three Polo, here the situation is very fluid and the words spoken the day before yesterday by Carlo Calenda in Agorà suggest the abandonment of the project of a joint race with Italia Viva. Left chapter. The European elections will mark the balance of power between the Democratic Party and the 5 Star Movement, a necessary starting condition for a possible reconstruction of the broad field, an objective on which, month after month, glimmers of political will seem to emerge, contrary to the past. The hardest test, however, will be faced by Elly Schlein. On the one hand, he will have to guarantee a good electoral performance of the party in general. On the other hand, however, he will also have to guarantee that the candidates of his direct expression (we are talking, obviously by hypothesis, of Cecilia Strada, as well as Laura Boldrini and Lucia Annunziata) achieve a good result, especially if names like Dario Nardella or the president of the party (already a challenger who was defeated in the congress) Stefano Bonaccini. Both objectives, in fact, are functional for Elly Schlein to maintain her leadership, after the disastrous trials of 2023 in the territory that make many members of the structure murmur, and not little, that pool that rejected the secretary in the first round of the primaries, held with circles vote. On the other hand, Angelo Bonelli and Nicola Fratoianni, pillars of the Verdi-Left Alliance, have clear ideas. A recent article written jointly on the Manifesto foreshadows a unique race for the Europeans of the two subjects, extended to other realities of “civic-progressive” inspiration. The idea certainly makes sense, but at the moment it encounters some perplexity within the Greens, where there are those who fear diluting the party’s identity.