With four weeks to go before the House of Representatives elections, the top 3 previously formed in Peilingwijzer are still balancing each other. In this weighted average poll by I&O Research and Ipsos/EenVandaag, VVD has 25 to 29 seats, New Social Contract 23 to 29 seats and GroenLinks/PvdA 21 to 25 seats.
Therefore, the gap with the last party is so small – and within I&O Research’s margin of error – that it is still possible to talk about three more or less equal parties, according to political scientist Tom Louwerse. Louwerse is the creator of Peilingwijzer.
Behind these three parties are the PVV with 16 to 20 seats and the BBB, the biggest loser of the rise of Pieter Omtzigt, with 10 to 14 seats. The number of seats for all other parties remains below 10. Coalition parties D66 and CDA will be hit hard with 6 to 10 and 3 to 5 seats respectively. For D66, this means a loss of approximately 16 seats compared to the result 2.5 years ago.
“Essentially a confirmation of the current preference”
The formation of Omtzigt’s new party in late August resulted in a political landslide, but according to Louwerse there has been little or no change since then. Compared to this great start, the NSC trailed by no more than three seats. Even the war between Israel and Hamas did not change the stable situation in the last two months.
“In our seat survey, we find that conflict has little impact on voting behavior,” confirms researcher Asher van der Schelde of I&O Research. “Therefore, voters rarely switch between parties. The conflict is not discussed much in terms of content. “9 percent say it played a role in their party choice in the general election, but it is more about confirming a preference they already have.”
None of the other parties come close to ten seats. The closest ones are the Party for the Animals with 6 to 8 seats, SP with 4 to 6 seats, and Christian Union, Volt and Democracy Forum with 3 to 5 seats. Behind them are SGP and Denk with 2 to 4 seats and JA21 with 1 seat. Up to 3 Seats. Bij1 and 50Plus still have 0 to 1 seats in Peilingwijzer and therefore have to worry about their place in the House of Representatives.
Research institutes such as Ipsos emphasize that their surveys do not predict the outcome. The choice of the majority of voters has not yet been determined. According to I&O Research, 23 percent of voters are still completely undecided.
Source: NOS
Emma Fitzgerald is an accomplished political journalist and author at The Nation View. With a background in political science and international relations, she has a deep understanding of the political landscape and the forces that shape it.
