The majority summit gave the green light to the constitutional reform signed by Casellati, which would introduce into our system the so-called “premierato”, that is, the direct election of the Prime Minister. So what would change if the 2022 political elections were voted with the system supported by the government led by Giorgia Meloni? We tried to make a simulation with Lorenzo Pregliasco, co-founder and director of YouTrend.
“The article of the reform regarding the majority bonus is not clear”
Pregliasco explains: “It is quite irregular that the question of a 55 percent majority bonus for lists subordinate to the prime minister with the most votes is included in the Constitution. And we must also understand how feasible this is, because the article regulating this choice of chambers as long as this reward seems to me quite uncertain because “It is not specified how this will be guaranteed. Among other things, it provides for a single ballot measure for the Chamber and the Senate”.
Motto of the “Third Republic”
According to the majority parties, with the reform, Italy will enter the so-called “Third Republic”, a new phase in which governability will be guaranteed. In reality, this is a groundbreaking transition that everyone has been trying to understand for years. And all this is happening with an executive branch that has large majorities in both houses of parliament and an electoral law that actually already provides those who govern with large numbers.
“Currently – continues the YouTrend manager – there is no majority prize, but a mixed system that indirectly rewards the strongest parties or coalitions, winning more single-member constituencies and therefore, although there is no automatic prize, it actually rewards whoever it is. Other considerations Besides, it is not clear whether this reward was planned to be ‘at least 55 percent’ or whether it was a fixed quota, because in the latter case, if, for example, an election law was in line with it, if such a vote had been held in the Senate last year, today the Meloni government its number would be much less, with a majority of 108 senators, compared to the current seat count of 116 (115 if we exclude the President), reaching 110 if we count the seats abroad. given that the government must also have a majority, whoever wins may have a much less stable majority. In parliamentary committees. “However, a majority of 216 deputies will emerge in the Parliament compared to the current 238 deputies: even there the numbers will be smaller, but the situation will certainly be more manageable.”
A reform to avoid “draw”
In short, the Casellati reform could even be a boomerang for those who propose it, considering the next political elections. Pregliasco explains: “An assumption has to be made; the centre-right gained a very large majority in the last elections, with a 15-point lead over the Democratic Party. The current electoral mechanism means that in the event of a closer result between them, the top two coalitions risk producing a majority.” “With a bonus, the majority becomes automatic anyway. It will be necessary to understand how to manage the possible quota of those elected in single-member elections, because this is the case when it comes to these. If there was a fixed threshold of 55 percent, it is difficult to guarantee this. ‘Porcellum, so to speak “They could have opted for a proportional system with a majority bonus, something like .”
Will it help reduce abstentionism?
One of the stated aims of the reform is to enable citizens to become more involved in public life: there are those who hope that this will greatly reduce abstention; But will it really happen like this? “Perhaps yes,” concludes YouTrend’s director, but in reality there is no greater participation when there are direct elections in municipalities and regions. In theory, perhaps, it would make the debate a little more exciting and media-focused, although in fact it has been that way for years: Even before the last election, everyone knew that if the centre-right had won, Giorgia Meloni would be prime minister. On the other hand, he may find himself elected for the person he did not vote for when he gets involved by voting directly for the Prime Minister with the majority bonus, which would re-suggest the logic of ‘nominated’ parties if preferences are not reintroduced. For this reason, he will feel distant from politics again.”
Follow today on the new WhatsApp channel too
Source: Today IT
Emma Fitzgerald is an accomplished political journalist and author at The Nation View. With a background in political science and international relations, she has a deep understanding of the political landscape and the forces that shape it.
