Two weeks before the elections, the top 2 are revealed in Peilingwijzer. NSC with 25 to 31 seats and VVD with 26 to 30 seats are at the top, followed by GroenLinks-PvdA with 21 to 25 seats. The survey guide is a weighted average of I&O Research and Ipsos/EenVandaag surveys.
According to Peilingwijzer founder Tom Louwerse, two weeks ago there was no clear difference between GroenLinks-PvdA on one side and VVD and NSC on the other, but now there are five seats.
In Ipsos/EenVandaag, VVD and NSC are at the top with 28 and 26 seats respectively, while GroenLINks-PvdA is well behind with 22 seats, while I&O Research NSC is three seats larger than VVD with 29 seats, making it three seats larger than VVD with 2 seats. is big. It is larger than GroenLinks-PvdA.
No Timmermans effect
According to Louwerse, polls do not show any Timmersman effect. “The merger of GroenLinks and PvdA in Peilingwijzer is almost the same as before the parties decided to create a joint listing. “They’ve been at the same level for almost the entire year.”
I&O researcher Asher van der Schelde says his office’s voter survey shows that Frans Timmermans is not very convincing to voters. Moreover, the campaign is not about climate change, an issue on which GroenLinks-PvdA has been successful.
Omtzigt won the debates
Pieter Omtzigt was well received by voters. According to I&O’s research, voters convinced him the most in both the University Round and the RTL debate. 53 percent thought he was the best in the RTL debate, compared to just 14 percent for Timmermans. Dilan Yeşilgöz is one of them with 36 percent.
He’s doing particularly well compared to his own voters. It is experienced clearly and realistically.
Omtzigt’s party also has the chance to grow further, according to I&O research. Van der Schelde finds this surprising. “Omtzigt attracts left and right voters who are difficult to keep together. “We expected that he would lose something when his program became known, but now we see that many people who have no preference are also voting for him.”
It is unclear what impact this will have, as Omtzigt does not yet know whether he wants to become prime minister. I&O did not investigate this. Van der Schelde believes that Omtzigt has solved this problem cleverly. “Assuming he doesn’t want to be prime minister, he’ll have to appoint someone and then people will have a chance to say it’s not necessary for them anymore.”
No race yet
It’s not a race that’s over yet. GroenLinks-PvdA still has growth potential and could win over voters, especially those who believe they are currently voting for D66 or Volt.
Tom Louwerse says history shows last week there could still be significant changes. “We have a short campaign in the Netherlands and that usually means something changes at the end. In 2021, D66 was seen to rise suddenly in the last week. And in 2017 the VVD finally clearly surpassed the PVV.”
BBB continues to decline
PVV is currently in Peilingwijzer with 16-20 seats. “Following the increase, the number of seats in the PVV stabilized at the same level as last year. There was no real breakthrough,” Louwerse said.
BBB continues to decline significantly and is currently at 7-11 seats. Louwerse notes that the NSC and the BBB were rivals in the elections, and the NSC has now clearly won this battle.
In fact, Caroline van der Plas’s party is so far behind that it is almost at the same level as D66 with 6-10 seats. This difference is within the margin of error.
Other parties
Animal Protection Party is ahead with 6-8 points, followed by SP with 4-6 seats and Volt, FVD, CDA, Denk and Christian Union with 3-5 seats.
SGP fell to 2-4 seats and JA21 to 0-2 seats. BIJ1 and 50Plus are 0 to 1 seats.
Source: NOS
Emma Fitzgerald is an accomplished political journalist and author at The Nation View. With a background in political science and international relations, she has a deep understanding of the political landscape and the forces that shape it.
