A week before the elections, the picture in Peilingwijzer has remained almost unchanged: Three parties are at the top; VVD (26 to 30 seats in parliament) and NSC (24 to 28) are slightly larger than GroenLinks-PvdA (21 to 25 seats). ).
Behind it is PVV with 17 to 21 seats. All other parties have fewer than 10 seats in Peilingwijzer, a weighted average seat poll by I&O Research and Ipsos/EenVandaag.
Many are unsure of their voice
No party currently has more than 30 seats. But recent political history shows that major changes mostly occur in the last week before elections. According to the latest polls by both institutions, no more than 40 percent of voters are completely confident in their vote.
“In every last election there was at least one party that managed to win around five seats compared to the polls just before election day,” says political scientist Tom Louwerse, creator of Peilingwijzer. “VVD, NSC and GroenLinks-PvdA of course hope that this time they will be that party. Scenarios can now be considered for all three scenarios, which become the largest. “Although Geert Wilders’ party has made progress since the summer, this will actually be more difficult for the PVV.”
“Thought is unclear”
What is notable about I&O Research’s latest poll, published this evening and surveys of which began on Sunday after the second RTL debate, is that the NSC lost four seats here. Since NSC in Ipsos has long been at a lower level than I&O, this does not yet lead to a significant gap compared to VVD in Peilingwijzer.
Researcher Peter Kanne of I&O Research hears from outgoing NSC voters that they found Pieter Omtzigt’s content too vague and that they also had difficulty with his refusal to say whether he wanted to be prime minister. “Omtzigt still gets the highest average score of all party leaders,” says Kanne. “But now it’s at 6.7, in August it was 7.6.”
BBB, the big winner in last March’s provincial council elections, has continued to lose ground since the start of the campaign and now holds between 7 and 11 seats. Ipsos/EenVandaag heard from some voters who thought Caroline van der Plas looked “jarring” in the debates.
D66 is now about the same size as BBB, which won the most seats of all parties in the last general election, but is now down significantly to 7 to 9 seats. The other two coalition parties also continue to perform poorly in Peilingwijzer: CDA and Christian Union cannot get above 3-5 votes. For the Christian Union this means only a small loss compared to the current 5 seats, while for the Christian Democrats it means losing a further 11 seats in the House of Representatives compared to the 15 they currently hold.
Denk and Volt’s small victory
SP has another loss with 7 seats to 5, and Democracy Forum has another loss with 5 seats to 3. The Animal Welfare Party also appears to be on the right track with 5 to 7 seats and will therefore remain the same. SGP is also stable at 2-4.
Denk can definitely make a profit from 3 to 5 seats, just like the Volt. Denk often appeals to Dutch Moroccans and Turks, who are more likely to vote because of the war between Israel and Hamas.
JA21 loses slightly between 1 and 3 seats, while Bij1 and 50Plus are at risk of disappearing from the House of Representatives. Neither party can win any seats in Peilingwijzer by more than 0 to 1.
Source: NOS
Emma Fitzgerald is an accomplished political journalist and author at The Nation View. With a background in political science and international relations, she has a deep understanding of the political landscape and the forces that shape it.
