The Netherlands wakes up this morning to a country where a political landslide has occurred within 24 hours. Although the latest poll guide on Tuesday showed the PVV joining forces with leading candidates VVD and GroenLinks-PvdA, the victory of Geert Wilders’ party exceeded all expectations.
The preliminary estimate, based on 98 percent of votes counted, shows PVV winning 37 seats. That’s two more than the exit poll at 9 p.m. The second batch is GroenLinks-PvdA (25), followed by VVD (24) and NSC (20). This makes the PVV the largest party in the House of Representatives.
After the monster win, Wilders is likely to take the lead in the formation process. Ipsos voter research shows that immigration and asylum are important issues for voters. Wilders’ nationalist party took advantage of this (“comeback 1” in Dutch is the name of the election programme).
Moreover, in the preliminary forecast, it is assumed that BBB will have 7 seats. CDA also has 5 seats like SP. PvdD and FvD get three seats each.
The four coalition parties that formed Rutte IV (VVD, D66, CDA and Christian Union) lost all seats. According to the latest estimates, 41 of the 78 seats won by parties in the 2021 elections remain. For the first time since 2010, VVD is not the largest party. According to the latest estimates, party leader Yeşilgöz is likely to come in third place along with GroenLinks-PvdA.
Geert Wilders reacted with satisfaction to last night’s result. In the video shared by the PVV leader on X, the disbelief on his face can be seen. A short time later, in a cafe in Scheveningen, where a last-minute party meeting was held, Wilders already has an explanation for the great success. “The voters spoke and said: We are fed up, we are fed up!”
GroenLinks-PvdA actually feared a PVV victory. “Now is the time for us to defend democracy,” party leader Frans Timmermans said in an emotional speech that appeared to prepare him for opposition. “If after tonight you meet someone asking themselves: Do I still belong here? Then say yes openly!” There was surprise and anger in D66, too.
NSC boss Omtzigt spoke of a “great result”. He said he also wanted to manage. “We are ready to implement trust. But it won’t be easy.”
Here’s an overview of election evening and the most important results in two minutes:
There was disappointment due to the VVD of party leader Yeşilgöz. He does not believe his campaign opened the door to Wilders, making the PVV the largest party. However, in his opinion, people “did not listen to people enough”. It is not yet clear whether he wants to form a coalition with Wilders.
Yeşilgöz says, “The advantage in the lineup is not ours.” Now it’s Wilders’ turn and he still needs to prove that he can find such a majority. The group will first discuss whether VVD belongs to it or not.
Here you can read the most important political reactions to the election results:
According to Wilders, parties now need to “jump over their own shadows”. He urges the other parties to reach an agreement and says he wants to work together. “It is not possible for Frans Timmermans to do this in a short time due to a failed formation, this cannot happen.”
PVV is probably in good standing on its own for 37 of the 76 seats needed for a majority cabinet. It will be difficult to convince the other major parties, but there still seems to be room.
Immediately after the election day poll, Wilders said he would not push for Islamophobic measures such as banning the Quran or closing Islamic schools. He said he wanted to remain loyal to the Constitution. This means he is already making progress into the formation phase, which starts on Friday.
What options are there for the new coalition? There are opportunities on the right, but there are also significant political obstacles:
Source: NOS
Emma Fitzgerald is an accomplished political journalist and author at The Nation View. With a background in political science and international relations, she has a deep understanding of the political landscape and the forces that shape it.
