So Dutch Wilders reinvigorates the European right (and Salvini)

Geert Wilders’ victory in the Netherlands gave a breath of confidence to the European right; The union’s conservative formations sense that the wind is changing in the bloc and hope that consensus will increase in the next European elections in June 2024. The Freedom Party (Pvv), sitting on the Identity and Democracy (Id) benches along with Matteo Salvini’s Union in Brussels and Strasbourg, won by far the most seats in the Dutch Parliament. It doubled its presence in Parliament, taking 37 out of 150 seats, and was followed by a left-wing alliance between Labor, led by former EU climate chief Frans Timmermans (25 MPs), and the Greens, led by the outgoing prime minister’s liberal VVD party. minister Mark Rutte (23) and the new centrist New Social Contract party (with 20 seats).

The PVV had its best results outside the cities, but also narrowly won in the working-class centers of Rotterdam and The Hague, stealing votes from the VVD, now led by Justice Minister Dilan Yeşilgöz. Wilders, 60, who has been a member of parliament since 1998 and lives under police protection due to his anti-Islamic stances, vowed to stop the “defection tsunami” and assured that “the Dutch will get their country back”. His program also includes a referendum on leaving the European Union and bidding farewell to a number of environmental policies.

Now the far-right leader will have the chance to try to form a governing coalition, but it will not be easy. Muslim organizations say they are concerned about the treatment a potential Wilders executive would give them, while environmental groups including Greenpeace fear environmental policies could be rescinded. Wilders cannot govern alone and will have to persuade at least two or three parties to join him: a task in which he is unlikely to succeed, and negotiations will be long and complex. If he fails, the ball will pass to Timmermans. The Dutch are no strangers to lengthy negotiations to form a coalition. It took 299 days to form the last Rutte government, a record.

However, whether Wilders went to government or not, the European right was still pleased with the result, which was interpreted as the result of the public’s discontent that did not remain within the Dutch borders. “A new Europe is possible,” Matteo Salvini wrote on social media Wednesday evening. Marine Le Pen, leader of the French National Rally, said she was “happy” with Wilders’ victory and said it would show “more and more countries within the European Union are questioning its functioning”. Alice Weidel, leader of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, said: “All Europe wants political change!” said. “Well done, Geert,” wrote Harald Vilimsky of Austria’s far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) in a post showing a photo of the leaders of the identity group in the European Parliament. “I am proud of my political friends and our alliance,” Vilimsky said.

Belgian Tom Van Grieken, leader of Flemish Vlaams Belang, another Id member, said the results showed people “want real change”. “Parties like ours are coming all over Europe!” he assured. “More and more Europeans are demanding in the streets and at the polls to defend their nation, their borders and their rights,” said Santiago Abascal, leader of the far-right Spanish party Vox, which is allied in Europe with Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy. Wilders also received congratulations from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, the ‘important figure’ with whom he shares his opposition to the EU’s support for Ukraine. “The winds of change are here!” Orbán wrote about X, referencing a song by the West German rock band Scorpions released shortly after the fall of the Berlin Wall.

Polls also seem to confirm that the tide is changing. Many polls for next year’s European elections predict strong increases in far-right parties and losses for the Greens and Socialists, as well as the centre-right. According to Stijn van Kessel, a political scientist at Queen Mary University of London, this election could serve as “a wake-up call for Western European sentiments in general”. French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire argued that Wilders’ victory was the result of “a lot of anxieties and fears” that have accumulated in Europe in recent years and fueled the rise of far-right parties across the continent.

In Italy, Meloni came to power last year, Le Pen’s Rassemblement National came second in the 2022 French presidential election, in Poland the Law and Justice conservatives (Pis) did not return to government but still came first with 35.3 percent of the votes. While the Alternative for Germany party is currently in second place in the polls in Germany, it is stated that Vlaams Belang may be the first party in Belgium, where the voting will be held with the European elections in June. The Dutch case does not actually seem to be an isolated case.

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