The wave has not arrived yet, but an explosion is expected soon. The emergence of new artificial intelligence technologies will radically change the way we think about work and our professions. If we are not ready for change, the risk of high levels of unemployment and social exclusion is also very high. We talked about this with Marco Bentivogli, former leader of the CISL metalworkers group and currently coordinator of the “Base Italia” movement. Bentivogli, an expert on industrial policies and innovation, was one of 30 experts appointed by MISE to develop a national strategy on artificial intelligence, a role he will hold until 2021. He is currently touring Italy to present a paper with the symbolic title: “Fire the bosses: How bosses ruined business”, in which he also touches upon the issue of transition created by new artificial intelligence technologies.
According to a report by the Mc Kinesy Institute in the US alone, 30 percent of jobs in the US could be automated and approximately 11.8 million employees would have to change jobs, Dr. Bentivogli said. Are we also facing this phenomenon in Italy and Europe?
Regarding Europe, McKinsey research shows that around 22% of business activities in the EU (equivalent to 53 million jobs) could be automated by 2030. The pandemic has accelerated the adoption of automation in both “physical” and “cognitive” processes. The creation of new jobs will fully or partially compensate for job losses from automation only in countries and companies that are prepared for the change.
Estimates in absolute value or percentage are based on hypotheses. The challenge is clear and it will all depend on how each continent, country, ecosystem and company behaves in preparation for this acceleration. Here, the working-age population is expected to decline by almost 7% (about 2.5 million people) by the end of the decade.
There are also many studies for Italy, starting from revealing the 800 professions researched by Istat in terms of digital and artificial intelligence. All agree that there is an “automation risk” that varies depending on the professional profiles considered. The European context suggests that Italy may face similar challenges in terms of changing labor markets and that reskilling of workers will be necessary.
The least skilled and least paid occupations are most at risk. What strategy should or should be implemented to protect the weakest groups?
Work is becoming increasingly polarized between “selected” work, which consists of medium-high skills and has better contract conditions, and bad work, where you work hard and earn little. In the first case, there is huge scope for reforming and reducing working hours to less than 8 hours without the restriction of 5 days a week. In the second case, there are many workers who are forced to work part-time, for example, dreaming of 8-hour work.
The policies of the last 30 years have failed: Italy has the most unequal labor market in Europe. The employment rate is also increasing due to the decrease in the active population, but we are 10 points below the European average.
Are we entering a new phase of industrial history? So how can we act?
There will be 3 types of effects: 1) professions have been completely changed. 2) new professions. 3) integrating and supporting existing professions with the use of artificial intelligence systems. There are 3 different transitions that, if not accompanied, will create negative balances between what is lost and what is new to be born. Digital and advanced robotics eliminate repetitive routine tasks and enhance tasks with greater cognitive involvement.
Paradoxically, high-skilled blue-collar jobs that have been “hybridized” with advanced machinery will be less eroded by technologies than repetitive white-collar jobs. The real theme is creative work. The match will be tough. This is about the substitutability or integration of people. I continue to think that “augmented humanity” will be the business that will grow. Our humanity cannot be changed. Artificial intelligence is not intelligent, it does not know how to attribute purpose to things, it has no sensitivity, no criticism, no lateral spirit.
Which professions are likely to disappear soon? So which ones will emerge?
As the World Economic Forum states, 65 percent of girls and boys going to primary school today will work in a job we don’t even know the name of today. In my opinion, there will be a radical evolution in existing professions. I like to give the example of the radiologist. The percentage of error in diagnostic imaging is variable and depends on three factors: the professionalism of the doctor, the quality of technologies and the pathology to be diagnosed.
Reading images by artificial intelligence significantly reduces the margin of error. Does this mean that artificial intelligence will replace the radiologist? No, but it will be an important tool to make fewer mistakes. This means that the radiologist who uses AI will replace the radiologist who cannot or does not want to use it. Transition is an evolution that also increases opportunities. Countering the risks depends on our awareness and the ruling classes with medium and long-term vision.
What are the opportunities for businesses? For example, I’m thinking of increasing productivity…
In the first stage, we will definitely experience the Solow paradox, which was described by Nobel Prize winner Solow in 1987: “We see that we are in the computer age everywhere, except for productivity statistics.” This means that in the second stage, the results of these technologies will be even more obvious and “actionable” and can provide productivity benefits, as they speed up processes, increase the amount of work developed and allow the use of natural resources. was recorded. They will definitely be decisive in Italy because these 3 issues condemn small companies to dwarfism. Used well, AI can be a driver of growth in company size.
The last four governments established committees of experts to develop strategy in ministries: I was part of the first one. Currently the strategies remain on paper, we hope there are more serious intentions.
Be careful because artificial intelligence can also be used for negative purposes, even in the business world. For example, I think of exasperated control or assignment of intolerable workloads. In the end, it all depends on the purposes we assign to the algorithms.
Are our universities and education centers ready for this transition?
There is Italian excellence that needs to be spread at the polytechnic. But on average education and training still remained too “Fordist”. The learning methods and contents in the catalog are the same for everyone. We must offer a personalized education and training system, from the youngest to the oldest. Technologies help us in this task. Some teachers have started, but there is not yet a sufficient public debate in our country.
We are a Republic “founded on work”, but is the goal of full employment realistic in the future?
We, Italy, are a Republic founded on work-based (positional) income. In the coming years, there will be a demographic decline in the working-age population greater than the current number of unemployed people. We need to think about managing migration flows into the country. Enable the growth of “decent” work by rebuilding economic, social, industrial and, above all, work architectures. There are no automatic mechanisms, the future is the result of present choices, and we must learn to choose better governing groups based on this assumption.
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Source: Today IT
Emma Fitzgerald is an accomplished political journalist and author at The Nation View. With a background in political science and international relations, she has a deep understanding of the political landscape and the forces that shape it.
