In the elections to the House of Representatives, PVV benefited from voters who voted for BoerBurgerBeweging (BBB) a few weeks ago. He wanted to vote for the New Social Contract (NSC), or he just didn’t know it yet. This emerges from the first analysis of the National Voter Survey.
“This group largely went to PVV,” says researcher Kristof Jacobs. 40 percent of those who thought they would vote for BBB at the beginning of November chose PVV on November 22. 25 percent of voters who initially wanted to vote for NSC switched to Geert Wilders’ party.
The final report of the National Voter Survey will be published in a few months. The researchers are sharing their initial findings today because “it’s important to provide insight into political decisions,” Jacobs says. “We found there was a lot of speculation.”
The study provides background information on PVV’s latest move. It became clear that the party could be the largest party only in the last weekend before the election. Who voted for PVV and why?
PvdD to PVV
The researchers didn’t just examine changes among undecided voters. They also examined which party current PVV voters voted for in the last House of Representatives elections in 2021. At that time, voters who voted for BBB or 50Plus went to PVV relatively often.
Other changes came from the SP, VVD and Party for the Protection of Animals, JA21 and the Democracy Forum. In addition, PVV also received votes from those who stayed at home in 2021.
Following the PVV’s victory, various statements were circulated in the media, such as that many Muslims and theoretically educated people voted for the party. “But this study shows that these are exceptions,” says researcher Kristof Jacobs.
“There are theoretically educated voters who vote for PVV, but they are a small group.” The researchers find that “voters who see themselves as part of the working class” are still overrepresented among PVV supporters. The study also showed that the preference for PVV among Muslims was minimal.
Coordinate strategically correctly
Researchers found that voters voted for PVV primarily because they accepted its positions on asylum and immigration. Jacobs says it was an advantage for the PVV that there was so much debate on immigration in the final weeks of the campaign. “This is a matter for PVV. NSC actually campaigned for PVV because it talked about immigration.”
Regarding their motivation for voting for the PVV, voters say that the PVV “made the Netherlands for the Dutch again” and that the PVV “unlike other parties has the courage to tell the truth.” Voters expect the party to be able to create change.
But PVV voters were not only driven by content, they also voted strategically. Many did not want the VVD to become the biggest, but above all they did not want the “Left” or the “Timmermans” to emerge as the winners.
More self-confidence than before
As the poll showed, the vast majority of PVV voters (60 percent) were still “very satisfied” with the votes they received shortly after the election. Only SGP voters are more likely to be “very satisfied.”
It is also noteworthy that PVV voters’ trust in the government and the House of Representatives has increased significantly compared to before the election. According to researchers, this “win effect” is always present. But they find it striking that “such an effect can now be seen so clearly among the generally distrustful and loyal PVV voters.”
Source: NOS
Emma Fitzgerald is an accomplished political journalist and author at The Nation View. With a background in political science and international relations, she has a deep understanding of the political landscape and the forces that shape it.
