The Meloni effect could have a significant impact on the results of European elections. According to the survey conducted by the Noto polling institute for ‘Porta a Porta’, if the prime minister had been the leader in all Fratelli d’Italia constituencies in the elections, his vote share would have increased from 28% to 32%. Instead, Elly Schlein’s candidacy will have a much less disruptive impact on the vote: The results show that Democrats’ support will increase from 19.5% to 20% if the Democratic Party secretary enters the field.
However, Meloni’s possible candidacy would be against the other parties in the coalition. In particular, the League risks going from 8% to 6.5%, at least according to the poll, while Forza Italia and Noi Moderati will lose half a point. On the contrary, Schlein’s candidacy for the leadership of the list will have a positive impact on Verdi-Sol and its vote share will increase from 3.5% to 4%.
The impact of Meloni and Schlein’s candidacy on coalitions
Looking at the general data of the coalitions, the centre-right would have reached 45 percent without Meloni’s candidacy, and one and a half points more with his candidacy. The centre-left (represented by Pd – Verdi and Si – +Europa, so no 5-Star and centrist parties) will increase from 25% to 26% with Schlein’s candidacy. So the Meloni effect is there, but it will benefit the prime minister’s party much more than the rest of the coalition.
Meloni has not released the reservation yet. “I haven’t made a decision yet,” he said at a press conference in early January. “I am a person for whom nothing is more important than knowing that I have the consent of the citizens, I have done so at every opportunity when I had the opportunity to measure myself against the consensus, even competing as Prime Minister would be useful and interesting.”
Because Meloni is undecided whether to participate in the European elections
Rumors speak of a conflicted prime minister. Also because his candidacy would not be received favorably by his government allies. The proof of this is Matteo Salvini’s statement just a few days ago, in which he said that he would not take the field himself. “I am the Minister of Infrastructure and Transport to the best of my ability, and I want to continue to do that.” Some are reading this as a dig at the prime minister. Detractors argue that the Northern League member is ready to play the card of the responsible leader who does not seek imaginary candidacies (those who have been elected and already have a role in the government or Parliament are unlikely to leave Rome for Brussels), but remain focused on “things to do” do it.
Of course, there are also election calculations. It is no secret that in the Northern League (also in Forza Italia) they fear that Meloni’s influence on the European elections will result in a further worsening of the gap between the majority parties, which is already clearly visible in the polls. As we saw above, this fear is more than well-founded. That’s not all. There are suspicions that Salvini’s retreat should also be read as an attempt to avoid direct confrontation with the prime minister. It’s a comparison that’s currently at risk of losing badly.
Tajani at the window, Conte says no, Schlein undecided
To fully avoid majority displeasure, Meloni may decide that winning after all is wiser than winning by a landslide. Meanwhile, Tajani is also in the window and does not categorically exclude being part of the game, as Giuseppe Conte did on the other side. Making a call to other leaders a few days ago, Who said, “We should not make fun of the citizens. You cannot say vote for me, I will stand up and find Conte in all the lists, but Conte will not be able to go.” To the European Parliament, because they are already MPs.” But the games are still open in the Democratic Party. Elly Schlein has not yet completed her candidacy, but according to polls, she does not represent a real added value for the Democrats. One of the options on the table proposed by Bonaccini is the candidacy for secretary, but this is in every constituency not valid.
Source: Today IT
Emma Fitzgerald is an accomplished political journalist and author at The Nation View. With a background in political science and international relations, she has a deep understanding of the political landscape and the forces that shape it.
