Europe is moving increasingly to the right: if we were to vote tomorrow, the conservative and pro-sovereignty parties would win in 9 of the 27 countries of the European Union (allies of the Brothers Italy and the League, respectively, to be specific). They will be the second or third political force in the other nine member states. And this does not take into account the moderate centre-right EPP People’s Party, represented on our shores by Forza Italia. This is the conclusion of a survey conducted by Ecfr (European Council on Foreign Relations) with an eye on the next European elections in June.
Meloni and Le Pen are the queens of the votes
According to the poll, the conservatives of the European party ECR, led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, will win 85 seats in the EU Parliament. Even better is Identity and Democracy (ID), the alliance that includes the League, Marine Le Pen’s French, Geert Wilders’ Dutch and AfD’s Germans: the sovereignists will get 98 MPs, making them the third political force in the European Chamber.
Together, these two right-wing realities drive projections in Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, France, Hungary, the Netherlands, Poland and Slovakia, as well as in Italy. They will place second or third in Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Portugal, Romania, Spain and Sweden. First of all, two national parties stand out: FdI, which will gain 27 seats, will become the second national party by the number of MPs in the European Parliament. To date, only the pro-sovereignty Le Pen could bring a larger patrol of up to 30 parliamentarians to Strasbourg and Brussels.
italian model
According to the Ecfr poll, the remaining Democratic Party in Italy will get 15 MPs, followed by M5 with 13 each. Lega and Forza Italia will have eight seats each. Closing the Third Pole with 6 parliamentarians: Matteo Renzi and Carlo Calenda are divided, but in Europe they do it under the same flag, under the flag of the Renew liberals (French President Emmanuel Macron’s group).
The centre-right (and government) coalition in Italy will bring 43 MPs to Strasbourg. If the Italian model were repeated in Europe, the centre-right would have 356 MPs; This was five fewer than the minimum number needed to gain a majority in the EU Parliament. But the Ecfr count is missing 16 MPs from Fidesz, the party of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, which is not currently a member of either conservative or sovereigntist groups. If this coalition materializes, Ecfr writes, we could see a decisive change in environmental policies in Europe, starting with agriculture, a sector supported by the right and at the center of strong protests in many EU countries. In other words, the days of the European Green Deal dream would be numbered.
impossible coalition
However, the problem of the centre-right in the EU is precisely the problem of finding unity. The EPP’s People’s Party, which would still prove to be the leading party across Europe with 173 seats, has built a wall against Matteo Salvini and Le Pen’s sovereignists. And there is currently a coalition agreement with the Socialists (131 seats, according to the poll) and the Liberals (86 seats). This coalition still has the numbers (390 MPs) to retain control of the European Parliament.
The most convincing hypothesis at the moment is that the current EU government trio will remain together even after the June elections. But he may have to expand his dealings with the right, especially to Meloni’s conservatives. Looking to the left, the consensus is actually decreasing compared to the 2019 elections: the Greens will have 61 seats, while the left will have 44 seats.
Source: Today IT
Emma Fitzgerald is an accomplished political journalist and author at The Nation View. With a background in political science and international relations, she has a deep understanding of the political landscape and the forces that shape it.
