Data from the European Council on Foreign Relations. FdI will increase seats
The European Parliament will make a “sharp” turn to the right in the next legislature. So much so that Identity and Democracy, the group in which Rassemblement National and Alternative fuer Deutschland operate, could become the third largest in the Chamber, surpassing the Renew Europe Liberals. Even the ECR, the party group chaired by Giorgia Meloni, but only if it absorbed the MEPs from Fidesz, Viktor Orban’s party, could it become the third group, surpassing Id and Renew. This is the image that emerges from a study by the European Council on Foreign Relations (Ecfr) on the upcoming European elections on June 6 and 9, based on recent surveys carried out in all 27 countries of the Union and a statistical model that tracks performances registered by national parties in previous continental elections.
Anti-EU “populist” parties, according to Ecfr, are on the “right track” to emerge as the main winners of the next European elections, with projections indicating that they could come first in countries such as Austria, France and Poland, and that will achieve “excellent” results in Germany, Spain, Portugal and Sweden in June this year. The expected decline in support for major political parties, combined with a rise in extremist and smaller parties, is likely to pose “significant” threats to crucial pillars of the European agenda, including the Green Deal, continued support for Ukraine and the future of EU enlargement. HUH. , according to Ecfr. Based on a statistical model, the authors, including political researchers Simon Hix and Kevin Cunningham, believe that the two main political groups in the European Parliament, namely the European People’s Party (EPP) and the Socialists and Democrats (S&D), will continue their downward trajectory, losing seats, as happened in the last two elections. According to scholars, the centrist formation Renew Europe (Re) and the green coalition Greens/European Free Alliance (Greens/Efa) will also lose seats, while the populist left and right, including the Group of European Conservatives and Reformists (Ecr) and Identity and Democracy (ID) will emerge as the main winners of the elections, with a “real possibility”, at a numerical level, of entering a majority coalition for the first time.
While the EPP is expected to remain the largest group in the legislature, maintain agenda-setting power and have a say in choosing the next Commission president, Hix and Cunningham hope that populist forces, especially those on the radical right , be stronger and be involved in the decision-making process, as has never happened since the European Parliament was first directly elected in 1979. Right-wing forces, according to Ecfr scholars, will be particularly strong in key states founding members, including Italy, where Fratelli d’Italia is expected to increase the number of seats to a maximum possible 27 deputies. The outlook is also favorable to the right in France, where Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party, Ecfr predicts, will likely give way to Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National, which is expected to gain a total of 25 deputies. The far right is also expected to perform particularly well in Austria and Germany.
Source: IL Tempo
Emma Fitzgerald is an accomplished political journalist and author at The Nation View. With a background in political science and international relations, she has a deep understanding of the political landscape and the forces that shape it.
