Meloni aims to make an impact among current leaders, but he will not break the historic records of the European elections because the number of voters expected to turn out at the polls is decreasing. An element for which, for example, it cannot even exceed the 2.3 million votes of Matteo Salvini, who was an absolute star in the last contest. That’s what the main research institutes say. According to Antonio Noto, “the prime minister, this time, is, without a shadow of a doubt, the favorite over the others, especially because she is the only one who should run in all electoral districts”. Elly Schlein, like Antonio Tajani himself, should leave the field free in some areas of the boot, to avoid internal discontent. «With the Fratelli d’Italia having much more votes than the other forces on the ground – explains the researcher – the prime minister should be the one who gathers the most consensus today. If it does not exceed past preference samples, it is only because 64% of voters previously voted, while now it is estimated that it will reach 54%. Therefore, the basis from which to draw decreases.” Despite this, for the expert, Giorgia should present her face: «The two thirds of the FdI’s votes are due to her presence. Furthermore, if she is on the ballot, she will be able to do campaign, while if he is absent, the institutional role will prevail and, therefore, he will have a softer function, which will have less impact on the base. A leader competes not to be elected in Brussels, but to drag his movement towards the best possible result. That is why, in my opinion, whoever spends his efforts only in the territory considered weak, where a famous name is needed to shoot, will be penalized. In this case, an unsustainable contradiction would prevail.”
Even for Renato Mannheimer, the first woman in charge of Palazzo Chigi could benefit from taking the field personally: «I don’t know if she will be the most voted ever because there are many important precedents, but I can say that her candidacy would be an advantage for Fratelli d’Italia. There are those who estimate that he could even get two more points. We are talking about the strongest profile.” For the veteran Eumetra researcher, however, the strength of the head of M5S, Giuseppe Conte, should also not be underestimated: «Although she is not an asset like the Prime Minister, she is very popular. Schlein, however, is discussed more at this particular time. Although Giorgia is well regarded by her parents and is more attractive, especially among moderates, the Democratic Party secretary has a series of conflicts within the Democratic Party to overcome. There are several critical elements. There are not a few who do not see this well in the lists, especially among women. Therefore, it would not have the same driving effect. Schlein, then, was unable to find either the desired unification or a new enthusiasm. However, it is not It’s certain that the wind changes between now and June.”
For the analyst, however, the prime minister, by putting his name and surname on the ballot, would not only strengthen his leadership in the majority, but also a government, which with the success of its main protagonist, would have at least for the months after the Europeans, a downhill journey. A factor that could allow him to extend the so-called honeymoon, currently the longest since the time of the great white whale.
Source: IL Tempo
Emma Fitzgerald is an accomplished political journalist and author at The Nation View. With a background in political science and international relations, she has a deep understanding of the political landscape and the forces that shape it.
