Taking Emilia and confirming Umbria: Meloni’s (difficult) test of strength

More than 4 million Italians went to the polls in Emilia-Romagna and Umbria for regional elections. The ballot boxes opened at 07.00 this morning in more than 400 municipalities and the counting will begin tomorrow at 15.00 when the ballot boxes close. New regional presidents are chosen in a critical round of elections to gauge the weight of national political forces. The challenges are intertwined in a scenario where Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni leads the center-right in its determination to consolidate strategic positions, while the center-left seeks to restart the “wide field” with signs of unity between the Democratic Party and the 5-Star Party. The movement and the liberal forces of the center.

Emilia-Romagna: a castle in the balance?

In the historic “red world” Emilia-Romagna, the centre-left presents itself with the mayor of Ravenna, Michele de Pascale, supported by a very broad coalition that includes the 5 Star Movement and the Renzians. The challenge here concerns the civilian candidate Elena Ugolini from the Comunione e Liberazione district, which is supported by the entire centre-right. Media attention to the region has been less than in 2020, when Matteo Salvini tried to “conquer” Emilia-Romagna together with Lucia Borgonzoni. Today, the fight is played out in a more sober environment, but there is one certain unknown: participation. In 2020, 67 percent of voters cast ballots, but memories of that rate falling to 37 percent in 2014 scare observers.

While De Pascale wrapped up his campaign in Bologna, the heart of the progressive consensus, Ugolini chose the center-right city of Ferrara as his final appeal. If the gap between coalitions in the last European elections had been around 15 points, the centre-right candidate would have been hoping for a historic success.

Umbria: the field of great struggle

In Umbria, the centre-right is aiming for the re-approval of outgoing governor Donatella Tesei, while the centre-left is attempting a coup with Stefania Proietti, the mayor of Assisi and the civilian candidate at the head of the “extra large” coalition.

Umbrian elections-2

Umbrian elections

The risks are high: grabbing Umbria from the right would mean upsetting the electoral balance for the centre-left and reinforcing a unitary strategy. Elly Schlein, Giuseppe Conte and Nicola Fratoianni showed unity in the final stage in Terni by reminding people of public health and the minimum wage. But there is no shortage of internal tensions: Paolo Gentiloni’s remarks about the Superbonus have reignited latent conflicts with the 5 Star Movement.

For the opposition, the result in Umbria will be a thermometer of its ability to transform the fragile union into electoral results. Focusing on the issue of healthcare and the need for a reliable alternative, Stefania Proietti asked voters to “go vote while they have the Constitution in their hands.”

Beyond voting: unknowns about participation

Voter turnout remains a central unknown in both regions. Calls for a vote have increased in Emilia-Romagna and Umbria in recent days, but fears remain that a lack of interest in local politics could have a negative impact on turnout, with unpredictable consequences for the results. In a polarized national context and with the European Parliament on the horizon, the results of polls in these two regions will not only provide an indication of the current political balance but also provide insight into how different powers are preparing for future challenges. When the results are finalized on Monday evening, we will know whether Meloni will strengthen his lead or whether the centre-left will find the strength to react.

Source: Today IT

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