Coalitions in crisis, united by distrust

Coalitions in crisis, united by distrust

The extremity (internal and external) emphasizes the center and moves it from its axis, breaking it; Frustration, frustration, resignation and anger are neither right nor left


In the face of the unresolved crisis they are experiencing, two (still) dominant coalitions are emerging in Argentine politics United in distrust. Internal and external.

An accelerated dissociation process was experienced In front of everyone?Emphasized by the autonomous drift of Buenos Aires perocircernism, has its correlation (not with minor nuances) Together? For a change. The effects of the centrifugal forces acting on it compete with the will to try to maintain coalitions. An increasingly difficult to maintain tie and always on the verge of breaking.

Nothing offers a better example than this A dubious peace was reached yesterday by the Cambodian AllianceWhich changed in less than 24 hours when Patricia Bulrich He expressed in writing his disagreement with what was agreed and delivered at the peace meeting. And he did it as pro president, with the explanation that he added to the signature that closed his post.

However, to reinforce paradoxes and conflicts, other key referents of his party (Mauricio Macri, Horatio Rodriguez Laretta and Maria Eugenia Vidal) Believe that their statement does not contain them because it was a personal function. At the same time, they claim that Bulrich participated in the drafting of the final statement, which was later issued. Without a doubt, small substitutes for different coats released a photo aimed at confirming this participation. More distrust. Another crack.

Beyond personal motivations and conjunctural political calculations, Bulrich’s case is again not an isolated or peripheral case of the reality that exists in the JxC, despite efforts to maintain unity. The president of another founding party of the opposition alliance is still at the center of discomfort and cross-suspicion.

Definitions that radical Gerardo Morales At the very populated table of the Alliance’s suspicious relations with the ruling party, the acceptance of these explanations by his comrades, and the denial of Macri and the Macri of participating in the operation against him. The wounds were not healed or the suspicions were buried. Bilateral.

Yesterday, the governor of Zhuzhou repeatedly repeated, “It was Mauricio” to those who confidentially asked him about the origins of the versions he had been in false negotiations with the restless. Even Sergio Massa, Alberto Fernandez and Cristina Kirchner (Indirectly), related to the integration and reform of the Judicial Council and the appointment of federal judges. The hours that have passed since Cambodian catharsis have changed little in terms of confidence.

A fatal wound to Morales

It is not difficult to understand Morales’s attitude if, as some prominent members of his party say, his presidential aspirations were accepted. Serious, if not fatal injuryWhich could take him out of the race by 2023 and pave the way for his fellow believers Facundo Manes. To the delight of a few prominent radicals who acknowledge or tolerate that he is the party president, however, prefer a neurologist as a candidate. But the governor is not ready to resign.

Yesterday, several eyewitnesses said they saw him show his love for extreme sports even though he has suffered a fall in recent days. They say he was talking to a senator who was a Philo-Peronist from Rio Negro at a hotel in Buenos Aires. Alberto VeretilnekWhich in the upper house almost always functions for Kirchnerism, though it does not include any of the official chairs.

Those who value the dwarf man say that his goal is still to add peronists to the JxC, and that is why he has such conversations as he had with Cordovan. John Skiaret.

Those who declare distrust and distrust of Morales, inside and outside his party, suspect that his ultimate goal is to create a presidential candidate with those Peronist leaders, along with his friendly masses, that will eventually blow up the current Cambodian architecture. To the detriment of their partners. Anything is possible when trust is broken, ambition is high and the context changes very quickly.

Time change

The subjective issues (ambitions, interests, and conflict egos) that dominate the scene, however, do not end with an explanation of the repetition and deepening of the disputes and differences that cross both the JxC and the FDT, despite the undeniable cases they have. There are objective elements that help to better explain the crisis.

A decade of consistent failure by administrations born of a desire to defeat and move opponents begins to push the boundaries of the virtuous circle (or vicious, depending on who defines it) that gave birth, nurtured, and strengthened dominant coalitions until it concentrated. More than 80 percent of voters will.

Antinomies Kirchnerism-anti-Kirchnerism, macrism-antimacrism is in the process of sustained (though not sharp) loss of hegemony.. The dominance that set the barrier to entry, which was too high, if not insurmountable, for any force that tried to challenge it from the periphery and which is now diminishing.

Thus, the renewed centrality acquired by Christina Kirchner and Mauricio Macri does not contradict the process of re-configuring the political map, but rather strengthens it. The extremity (internal and external) emphasizes the center and moves it from its axis, breaking it into equilibrium. Frustration, frustration, resignation and anger are neither right nor left. Neither Republican nor populist. The discomfort is transverse.

In this context, the emergence of both coalitions, marked by the effects of repulsion and attraction, in order to differentiate and complement each other, continues to generate dynamics in which one action influences and mobilizes its opposite. DNA often reveals many behaviors, especially when actors are faced with critical situations. Primitive reflexes appear.

The likelihood that one of the alliances will break, triggers fears and illusions and provokes a reaction in its opponent. But there is no common sense to tolerate in advance what constitutes an epochal change. Each actor interprets the context and accordingly acts according to the beliefs, experiences, ideologies, interests, conveniences and theories that each of them holds. Cognitive bias, would say the neuroscientist Manes. A theoretical framework that political scientist Bulrich could complete.

Much more than Miles

In this prism it is easier to understand the internal crisis of each coalition. In the case of cambia, Bulrich and Macri are inclined to approach Javier Mile, Associate one with the other and take libertarian flags.

The nuances are not insignificant when it comes to its impact on JxC. They explain for the time being Bulrich’s reaction to the coalition statement, which ruled out Miley’s first and last name, as opposed to the silent acceptance that was made by Macri. But both I agree that there is a climate of time or a growing social demand that matches the ideas and not the forms and emotions that are expressed, represented and catalyzed by the anti-system libertarian..

Such a conclusion forces Macri and Bulrich to consider, moreover, the Kirchner cycle as complete due to fatigue and the inability to re-create expectations. The expected and accelerated end to what they consider to be the failure of the Alberto Fernandez administration.

In the latter, ironically, they coincide with Christianity, Whose apparent distance from the government in order to maintain and survive, embodying the growing brutal attacks against Fernandez and his client Martin Guzman, reinforces the ultimate hypothesis of heavy macricism. However, there are 14 months left to confirm this.

In this regard, Horatio Rodriguez Laretta and Maria Eugenia Vidal, who Macri has joined the presidential race, from which he did not come, but does not want to rise (yet). Divide…

Morals and radicalism, on the other hand, do not believe, because of faith, belief and convenience, that we are in the pre-menopausal stage in Argentina, with a unique libertarian drift in society.

Მfor, The anger and frustration that Miley’s channels better explain the phenomenon than its ideology Which changes not only together for change. While they acknowledge that they need to include a few words and ideas that are not identified with radical roots and that are popular, according to the majority of public opinion polls. A) Yes, Reinforce exercises to articulate, spell, and naturalize concepts such as efficiency, fiscal balance, investment, productivity. Not everything is emotions.

To compensate for the emotional side and not be tied to morality, an increasing number of radicals are nominating Manes as a presidential candidate. In their favor, self-sacrifice An outsider Politics, but Insider A system that is being successfully developed by a neuroscientist and a deputy. They present it as a virtuous synthesis that can prevent cambiumit voters from fleeing to an enraged libertarian without losing the center and the social-democratic electorate.

The economic crisis, which manifests itself in rampant inflation, Fernandez’s political weakness, deepening internal conflicts in the ruling coalition, and the more likely advance of provincial elections, exacerbates uncertainty and accelerates the search for positions and explanations. Also, mistrust deepens. A feeling that unites all political actors and puts dominant coalitions in crisis.

Source: La Nacion