Another step towards his cinematic political resurrection after a long 500 days in prison and years of ostracism; Luis Inacio Lula and Silva A few days ago, he presented his candidacy for the presidency of Brazil, a position he held from 2003 to 2010 in Venezuela and in governments like the Continent.

The launch ceremony in San Pablo, which completes the development of an election map in the South American giant, also affected Argentina with its shock wave. but The government of Alberto Fernandez is shaking hands until his final return and is already talking about “changing the historical trend” for the region, “preparing for change together” from the opposition to “establish a relationship with the winner”.Without exception Jair BolsonaroThe current president, who is fighting from behind for re-election and has already spent more than two years without meeting Fernandes alone.

ასMasoba, Severe Kirchnerism is mistaken for being vice-president Christina Kirchner “Inspired” Lula in a hypothetical victory in October and decides to run next year in search of a third term.

Alberto has several main goals and desires: Reduce inflation, improve the economy and earn lula“, – explains a high-ranking diplomatic source close to the president. From this sector, they predict “tremendous climate change, from winter to spring” in relations with Brazil, and argue that “Lula’s first trip, if he wins, will be to Argentina”, given the historical personal relationship between the Brazilian PT leader. And Kirchnerism in its various stages.

The government believes that Lula, who can return to power today at the age of 76, “will go for regionalization.“Because the world is going that way.” Gerald Alkmin. It would be a radical change in relations with Brazil, which today has been virtually reduced by the efforts of the ambassador to Brazil. Daniel Sciol Against the background of the apparent enmity between Fernandes and Bolsonaro and the viability of the ties.

“Apart from the outcome, I spoke to both (Bolsonaro and Lula) because we need to unite in the strategic sectors in the context of the war between Russia and Ukraine, and the challenge is to improve that,” Scioli told the radio a few days ago. Profile. The former vice-president assured in the same interview that he did not believe Lula’s return would try to “motivate” former president Christina Kirchner again, as they claim that he “thinks” from different terminals in his political space.

“We do not analyze the elections of other countries,” they answered succinctly ᲔᲠᲘ Close to the vice president, however, on December 10 last year, at the Plaza de Mayo and during the 38th anniversary of the Democracy, Christina asked “Lula to become President of Brazil again.” And he noted: “We do not need it, but millions of Brazilians want to feel involved againThey have a decent salary and send their children to university. ”

“Lula, when a man goes through what has happened to you, I will stand by that man, because no man deserves an unjust prison,” the president told Lula in another part of the same act, in the Plaza de Mayo, and as implicitly. Indication of a court verdict passed for corruption by a former Brazilian president.

We read together for change

Enthusiastic about returning to power in 2023, from Together for Change they are also analyzing a new scenario in the country’s still major trading partner. Last Tuesday, the Pro’s international relations team met for a luncheon hosted by the Secretary General of Buenos Aires to discuss the issue. Fernando Strafeis. At the Recoleta Cultural Center, among others, were Pro’s Secretary of International Relations; Fulvius PompeoFormer Ambassadors to Brazil Diego Guellari and Carlos MagarinosFormer Chancellor George For And independent experts.

He went to meet the head of government, Horatio Rodriguez LarettaAnd, reportedly, he said, without any bidding, that “from 2023, Argentina must update its international intellectual policy, such as Mauricio Macri Transferred to “Casa Rosada during his stay.

“We are in one of the worst moments of our relationship with presidents who do not talk to each other. “And it is clear that we need Brazil more than they do. We, as partners, are much stronger,” Pompeo said. ᲔᲠᲘ.

Prodan recalled that Bolsonaro visited Macri during his administration, ”but we also had a dialogue. Dilma Rousseff ი Michelle TemerWho presided over the government of Cambyses. They stress that Lula and Macri shared actions when the former president was head of government in Buenos Aires and trusted the ties that Magarinos had established with PT and Lula when he was ambassador to Brazil. “Bolsonaro’s win is not so suitable for us. In fact, his son Edward said he liked it (Javier) Miley“- Ironically from Pro.

A difficult situation

Beyond ideological differences, the authorities and the opposition agree that the current state of bilateral relations and its direct consequences for Mercosur are far from ideal. “Mercosur has a huge institutional weakness, he has never created strong institutions, so everything depends on the so-called. On presidential diplomacy. “Historically, it has worked well. This is the first time that the presidents of both countries have met each other so badly, and it has had a huge impact,” the expert said. Marcelo ElizondoOwner of DNI Consulting Company.

Bilateral union data show a progressive deterioration: in 1995, Argentina’s exports to Brazil reached 25 percent of total exports, and in 2021 barely fell 15 percent, down from other destinations such as China. “Brazil wants a more efficient relationship with the world and has pushed for further reductions in tariffs on even cheaper imports. Argentina wants to maintain high tariffs and does not want to negotiate free trade agreements. “There are differences in the concept and Mercosur does not work that way,” said Elizondo.