Marcelo popular but influenced by the environment

The President of the Republic remains the most popular politician in Portugal. Although it has seen a decline this month, it still has a positive balance of 34 percentage points (they were 46 in the April barometer), with a decisive push from women (they succeed in a balance of 43 points, among others).

There are no questions in the barometer that help to clearly identify the reason for Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa’s breakup. But there is some evidence that it has to do, at least in part, with the government’s bad timing. Or at least with the degradation of the political climate in the country.

The 34 points of positive balance are an exception in the national political ecosystem, but in fact it is the president’s worst result since this wave of Aximage barometers began (in July 2020). And there is another coincidence that seems to reconcile his fate with Costa’s: it is a result similar to that of last October, when the socialist leader was punished by the crisis that led to snap elections.

In addition to women, the president has many above-average ratings in the Lisbon metropolitan region (positive balance of 46 points) and among the elderly (64% of positive ratings). If the analysis focuses on the party segments, the main pillars are again the socialist voters (balance of 65 points) and far removed from those who prefer to vote for the Social Democrats (positive balance of 37 points). Marcelo only has a negative balance between Chega and the Liberals.

Luis Montenegro leaves Ventura . behind

Luís Montenegro won the PSD elections in May. In July, he was crowned leader in his party’s congress. But not enough time seems to have passed to establish himself as leader of the opposition (19%): André Ventura remains in the lead (36%). The Chega leader is in fact three points more than last April.

Ventura is chosen as the main opposition figure in all regions (especially Lisbon), age groups (especially between 35 and 64 years old) and social classes. As for the party segments, it only loses among the voters of PS, CDS and Livre (for the leader of the PSD) and of the CDU (for Jerónimo). Curiously, Montenegro is still not convincing its people (it is six points lower than Ventura among the Social Democratic voters).

more data

– If they have to choose between putting their trust in Marcelo or Costa, the Portuguese continue to prefer the president. Especially those who live in the North region (57%) and those who vote for the PSD (69%).

– The percentage that makes more demands from the president on the government remains high. Northerners are once again in the spotlight (83%), but most curiously, the majority of socialists are also defending it (55%).


The poll was conducted by Aximage for the DN, TSF and JN, with the aim of evaluating the Portuguese opinion on the current situation.

The fieldwork took place between 5 and 10 July 2022 and 810 interviews were conducted among people over 18 years old living in Portugal. A quota sample was performed, obtained through a matrix intersecting gender, age and region (NUTSII), from the known universe, rebalanced by gender, age group and education. For a probability sample of 810 interviews, the maximum standard deviation of a proportion is 0.017 (ie a “margin of error” – at 95% – of 3.45%). Study responsibility: Aximage Comunicação e Imagem, Lda., under the technical direction of Ana Carla Basílio.

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Author: Rafael Barbosa

Source: El heraldo