Presidential 2026. Those who want to run… and those who are considering

As of today, there are 1298 days left before the next president of the republic takes office. Three years, six months and 18 days until March 9, 2026, the day (because it is always March 9th) for Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa to hand over the keys of the Palace of Belém to whoever succeeds him.

So there is plenty of time to think of, prepare and (or not) launch applications. However, the subject already occupies some place in political commentary. A few days ago, when he appeared at the PSD’s (resurrected) Festa do Pontal, arm in arm with Luís Montenegro, Pedro Passos Coelho gave more breath to speculation.

This time PS seems to have already solved the problem. Augusto Santos Silva, President of the Assembly of the Republic (AR) wants to be a candidate and António Costa supports him. The plan for launching the candidacy was in fact part of the fact that he is now number 2 in the state hierarchy and presiding over the parliament. And Santos Silva’s imposing stance in office, who poses as the top spokesperson in the fight against racial and xenophobic “hate speech” he attributes to Chega, reveals that Santos Silva is not only trying to get the PS to to settle voters as the electorate to the left of the PS. As a minister, he was never known for being overly adept at the “gimmick”, it’s only natural for him to do so. The absolute majority that PS won in the latest legislation was a balm for him. If a PS without a majority had to have the support of the BE and the PCP to elect a socialist chairman of the AR – as they had to choose Ferro Rodrigues – Augusto Santos Silva would not be elected (because he would hardly have the support having the two main parties on the left) of the PS). The absolute majority gave him the position without having to negotiate and this is the platform he is already using to confirm his program. The history of the presidential election proves that no PS candidate can be elected without the support of the PS left. Mário Soares, in 1986, was the ultimate example.

Santos Silva has already explicitly admitted that he is not ruling anything out and has defined 2025 as the year when it will be finally clarified. In the future, he is likely to resign as president of the AR – and the position could then be handed over to the current socialist vice president, Edite Estrela. However, it is a political decision. Strictly speaking, nothing legally prevents him from being a deputy, speaker of parliament and at the same time a presidential candidate. Legally, you should only resign if you have been elected PR.

To the right of the PS, Luís Marques Mendes – former minister, former leader of the PSD, state councilor personally elected by Marcelo and political commentator on SIC on Sunday – has already shown signs that he wants to be a candidate. A few days ago, he said he was “oversensitive” when people pointed this out to him.

Mendes seems to have it against him that he does not arouse any particular enthusiasm in his own party. And he knows that Pedro Passos Coelho will get much stronger support there – and even in the group on the right. When Passos advances, it is normal for Mendes to retreat. Until then, he observes very well-informed how the various protagonists are placed on the stage and remains visible in the public space with his weekly political commentary on current events.

And then there is the case of Admiral Gouveia e Melo, currently Chief of Staff of the Navy. A recent Intercampus poll for Correio da Manhã gave him the best place in a first round (31.7 percent) against candidates such as Paulo Portas (10.9), Marques Mendes (10.4), Augusto Santos Silva (7, 8), André Ventura (6.1) and João Ferreira (3 percent).

Although he is already tired of the questions about his political ambitions, the admiral always says that “it will be seen soon” and “the future belongs to God”. His case is interesting because it has been a long time since the country has seen anyone emerge so strongly outside the party cadre (after Eanes, all elected presidents were previously leaders of their respective parties). And much less a soldier.

Gouveia e Melo became popular for the way he conducted the anti-covid-19 vaccination process. The country appreciated the effectiveness of the operation, which the admiral always tried to portray as a military operation, disguising itself as if it were at war. The political power thanked him and offered him the leadership of the navy – and there is talk that the next step could be the leadership of the armed forces (but the current leader is a sailor and if Gouveia e Melo were elected, it would break with the tradition of rotation between offices). His profile, which hints at an idea of ​​order and authority, perhaps with more effect in the far right sectors of the electorate, would have the power to shake the bills of candidates of partisan origin. Objectively, Augusto Santos Silva would be the main beneficiary.

…and those who think about it

Pedro Passos Coelho There is still a long time to go, but this can already be said: the former leader of the PSD and former prime minister will not become a presidential candidate if he does not want to. You will receive full, unconditional support from your party – and in particular from the current leadership. Passos also fulfills the conditions to captivate the electorate that voted for the Liberal Initiative and Chega (after all, he was the one who “invented” André Ventura as a political figure), not to mention what’s left of the CDS-PP .

Paulo Portas Since leaving the CDS-PP board and leadership, he has made sure to stay in the public domain and comment on TVI on a weekly basis. Avoiding an opinion on national politics, he tries to cultivate a presidential pose. Being a candidate is not something that excludes. However, the parliamentary disappearance of the CDS-PP goes against big dreams. Like Freitas do Amaral in 1986, Portas can only aim for a candidate with winning potential if the PSD backs him.

André Ventura By the natural logic of things, André Ventura could once again be a candidate. It’s in your nature to be a candidate for everything. However, a possible advance of Passos Coelho takes up space, and maybe Chega even backs him. And the same will happen to Admiral Gouveia e Melo – even if Chega is the shelter party for all the anti-vaccine conspirators. For Chega, options are much less linear now than they were in the last presidential election.

liberal initiative Like Chega, Iniciativa Liberal also knows that the space for his own candidacy will shrink if Pedro Passos Coelho perseveres. If a strong candidacy appears on the right side of the PS, João Cotrim Figueiredo’s party will have to decide whether to support it or risk being again accused of divisiveness with its own candidacy – as was the case in the municipalities of Lisbon , in the face of Carlos Coins’ candidacy.

Portuguese Communist Party One certainty: the PCP will have a presidential candidate. It always has – and it remains to be seen if it will vote. In a possible scenario of strong left/right bipolarization, communist votes, although fewer and fewer, will be decisive for the victory of the left candidate. The next presidential election should take place at a time when the leader will no longer be Jerónimo de Sousa, whose signs of wear and tear are obvious.

left block The blocker’s tendency is to have his own candidate. In 2021, however, the results were quite meager (3.95 percent), a warning of what would happen after the overturn of the law in January this year. BE is going through difficult days and the next presidential elections will be part of that. Unless, because of a clear defeat to the right, the party decides to immediately support the strongest candidate coming from the left.

joao.p.henriques@dn.pt