Latest political polls, Pd at its height: falls and sees the overtaking of the Italian Brothers disappear

Latest political polls, Pd at its height: falls and sees the overtaking of the Italian Brothers disappear

Brothers from Italy, 5 Star Movement and Third Pole on the rise. Pd, Lega and Forza Italia in retreat. It is the center-right that continues to maintain a more than reassuring advantage over the opposing coalition. This is the trend photographed by the average of polls conducted by Agi/YouTrend when there are 18 days to go before elections and just four days to stop the publication of statistical polls.

Net of an overall result of the vote that continues to appear marked, there are some interesting trends at the foot of the podium, where the simultaneous fall of the League (12.9%, -0.9 compared to the previous week) and the advance of Cinquestelle (12.2%, +1.3) triggers the red alarm on the Carroccio for Conte’s possible overtaking. Overtaking is likely to materialize even in the positions immediately following, with Forza Italia dropping to 7.9%, leaving half a percentage point on the ground, and the Third Pole advancing to 6.5, gaining 0.6.

Also due to the difficulties of Salvini and Berlusconi, the center right leaves 1.3% on the ground, dropping to 46.9, despite the “shares” of Fratelli d’Italia remain in the black: 24.4%, advancing slightly. In any case, the center-left does not take advantage of this. The Democratic Party loses 0.7 and drops to 22% and the coalition leaves almost a percentage point on the ground, dropping to 28.6. A gap of more than 18 percentage points intended to affect mainly single-member electorates, where the center-right can really pull a coat and thus support its majority. On the other hand, a simulation made in the latest Tecné poll – one of the most “generous” with Meloni, Salvini and Berlusconi – gives the coalition more than 260 seats in the Chamber and 130 in the Senate. Very close, that is, to those two-thirds of Parliament that would allow the reform of the Constitution without necessarily going through a confirmatory referendum.

On the small front, the only party that would currently cross the threshold is the union between the Italian Left and the Greens, quoted at 3.6%. Italexit (2.8) or Unione Popolare di De Magistris, which “debuts” with 1.2%, would not do for a mustache. Neither the Civic Commitment of Di Maio nor the Noi Moderati of Toti, Brugnaro, Lupi and Cesa are present in Supermedia. According to various surveys, these two forces would “dance” around 1%. It is not an irrelevant detail, because below this threshold – 1%, in fact – the votes of the forces that make up the coalition are dispersed. That is, they do not participate in the final calculation of preferences. A circumstance that could slightly modify the result of centre-right and centre-left.

There are 18 days left in the campaign and possible surprises should not be forgotten. In the last major electoral rounds – the European elections of 2014 and 2019 and the politics of 2018 – the “band wagon” effect was registered, translatable into Italian “entering the wave of the (presumed) winner”. The favorite parties (Pd in ​​2014, M5S in 2018, Lega in 2019) ended up gaining much more support than estimated by the polls. A trend that, in this case, would reward the Brothers of Italy. On the other hand, the unusual vote in September with a still sunny climate may encourage a part of the center-right electorate to defect from the polls considering the result already achieved. A few more days to gauge consensus through the polls, then only the polls will speak.

Source: IL Tempo

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