In polls, the Democratic Party drops below 20%. Masia: Melons will grow again

In polls, the Democratic Party drops below 20%.  Masia: Melons will grow again

The center right flies unstoppable in the polls. According to the latest Emg Different survey, published by Free, the centre-right alliance is at 47.5%, the centre-left at 27%, the Cinquestelle Movement at 13%, Ação plus Italia Viva at 8%. A real disaster for Enrico Letta. Fabrizio Masia, head of the research institute and political consultancy Emg Different, said it would be “difficult for the situation to change much in the two weeks that separate us from the vote because, even though we currently have 41% undecided, in the end three quarters of these do not go to the polls. , I believe the abstention will be around 33%, so the votes still contestable are only 8% of the total.

Fratelli d’Italia is confirmed as the first party with 24.5% and according to Fabrizio Masia, head of the polling institute, Giorgia Meloni will continue to grow markedly close to the vote. This, explains Masia, “both as a continuation of an ongoing trend and because Meloni is the novelty of the electoral scenario and, as we have already seen in 2013, 2014, 2018 and 2019, the novelty effect is what pays the most”. In addition, Meloni benefits from the involuntary assistance of rival Letta, “because the polarization of confrontation strengthens her, which for some time has had a high level of personal approval, and weakens it, which inspires less”, explains the director of Emg Different, highlighting how the leader of the Brothers of Italy is also favored by the fact of being a woman, which represents the other novelty of these political elections. Ultimately, according to Masia, Meloni will be rewarded for the “value of consistency, which everyone recognizes”, and thanks “to the fact that they embody conservative values ​​in a credible way”. And as for the accusation of still flirting with fascism and being a threat to democracy, “it only affects the most convinced voters on the left, so it doesn’t displace votes or harm”, Masia continues. According to the poll, the League of Matteo Salvini has 12% of the votes. According to Masia’s analysis, Salvini “was wrong in defining the electoral campaign in terms of values, he should rather focus on the League’s strengths, such as things done to the government and concreteness. To go back, the suggested recipe is to hit hard on immigration, pensions and taxes, which are the heart of Carroccio’s electoral offer”, advises the director of Emg Different. Forza Italia maintains 8% of its “hard core” of consensus and the credibility gained over the years thanks to the promises kept in its political history. We Moderates, on the other hand, “dance around the 3% threshold, and if they don’t reach it, they can cede a few dozen seats to the three main center-right parties,” explains Masia.

The Democratic Party is down at 19.5%, “just one point above Renzi’s, and perhaps the most surprising number in the entire survey, not least because in 2018 the M5S was twenty points higher than today.” Enrico Letta made serious mistakes according to Masia: “Generic slogans at a time when citizens need concrete answers, upside-down attack by a stronger media leader, destructive approach to the opponent and not very proactive at the programmatic level”. Letta would also pay for the wrong choice to board Fratoianni and the Greens and for the move to present himself as the standard-bearer of draghism “losing against the same offer proposed by Calenda and Renzi”. The 5-star Movement, with a loss of about 20 points compared to the 2018 elections, is favored by the self-eclipse of founder Grillo. “Conte got the electoral argument right, which is the proof of citizenship income and the promise to extend it”, emphasizes Masia. The odd Renzi-Calenda couple is estimated at 8%, “but I wouldn’t be surprised if it gets to 10”, says Masia, explaining that the cause is always “Letta’s suicide tactic, which by dividing the left front into three fact clarified customs duties. the useless vote not only for Ação and Italia Viva, but also for the Democratic Party.”

Source: IL Tempo