Elections, the chances of politicians entering the House and Senate: simulations and numbers

How many chances do the most important names in politics have of being elected to the House or Senate on September 25? The analysis was performed by YouTrend, which calculated the probability of individual candidates. Enrico Letta and Giorgia Meloni will enter the Chamber and their election is almost certain. Same fate for Giuseppe Conte, while Luigi Di Maio has an ‘average’ chance of being elected. No problem in the Senate for Matteo Salvini, number one in the League, and Silvio Berlusconi, leader of Forza Italia. Among the names that will have an easy game are also Matteo Renzi, Claudio Lotito and Ilaria Cucchi. A little further down is Carlo Calenda.

As Adnkronos reports to the Chamber, Nicola Zingaretti and Giulio Tremonti are positioned at the top of chance, as are Giancarlo Giorgetti, Carlo Nordio, Fabio Rampelli, Chiara Appendino, Federico Mollicone, Giancarlo Rotondi and Rita Dalla Chiesa. In the ‘medium-high’ range, the names of Mara Carfagna, Benedetto Della Vedova, Ettore Rosato appear. In the middle lane are Luigi Marattin and Davide Faraone. Valentina Vezzali and Lucia Azzolina have even fewer chances: with medium-low projections. A difficult task for Alessia Morani to be elected to the Chamber. As for the Senate, Emma Bonino is included in the mid-range, finally Monica Cirinnà and Vittorio Sgarbi are on the lower-middle list.

Source: IL Tempo