Election 2022, Brothers of Italy fly, Democratic Party crumbles. Silence at the polls

Election 2022, Brothers of Italy fly, Democratic Party crumbles.  Silence at the polls

The ban on the publication of new polls began yesterday, with a view to elections to be held in two weeks’ time. To draw the general summary is the supermedia created by Agi/YouTrend which is based on more than twenty surveys carried out by 12 institutes in the last 15 days. Never like this time the “predictions” should be taken with a grain of salt, because they register very remarkable and, in a way, surprising twists. And, therefore, the time that still separates Italians from the polls could further accentuate (or reverse) these trends. We can speak, with a “sports” metaphor, of the starting grid of a Formula 1 GP. But the real race can bring many surprises.

In any case, the figure that seems clear is the likely victory of the centre-right. Which, at the coalition level, is 45.9% consensus, down 1.3 points from last week. The advantage over the main competitor, the center-left, remains reassuring, which stands at 28.5%, down 0.4.

As for the parties, Fratelli d’Italia continues to enjoy the “band wagon” effect, which can be translated into Italian with the “rising on the wave of the (presumed) winner”. Giorgia Meloni’s party is quoted at 24.4%, an increase of 0.3. While the other coalition partners are faring worse: Lega drops to 12.1, losing more than a percentage point, Forza Italia to 7.8 (-0.3) and Noi Moderati to 1.5 (-0.3 ).

Definitely bad for the Democratic Party that leaves another eight-tenths on the street and drops to 21.5% (some polls give it under 20). While the 5 Star Movement continues to rise, it is now quoted at 13.2, up 1.4 points. Carlo Calenda and Matteo Renzi’s Terzo Polo also rose to 6.8%, or 0.8% more than seven days ago.

As for the smaller parties, the only one that would exceed the 3% threshold is the aggregation between the Left and the Greens, at 3.7. Paragone’s Italexit (2.8) also expects, while more Europa (2.1), Di Maio’s Civic Commitment (1.1) and De Magistris’ Unione Popolare, just above 1%, remain far from the result, despite from the new endorsement of French leftist idol Jean-Luc M√©lenchon.

Based on these numbers, the center-right would largely win the majority of seats in both the House and Senate, mainly because of the “coat” in single-member electorates. Experts attribute more than 80% to the coalition of Meloni, Salvini and Berlusconi. But polls cite a share of undecided/abstainers not far from 40%. Last land of conquest for those who want to try to subvert the result.

Source: IL Tempo

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