Two Welsh teams are plunged into crisis as the problems run deeper than two men’s fight for survival.

New Year’s derby between the humble duo Dragões and Scarlets. That’s the problem this time of year: repeat, repeat and repeat again.

If you think you’ve seen this scenario before, it’s because you have.

In early 2023, the Scarlets and Dragons faced each other at Parc y Scarlets without winning. When they meet at Rodney’s parade to welcome 2024, things don’t get better. Get the latest rugby news straight to your inbox for free with our daily newsletter.

Somehow, even though there were just four Rugby Union wins between them last season, they are worse this time around.

The Scarlets did the double against Cardiff to claim their only domestic wins, while the Dragons beat the Ospreys at Rodney Parade.

Both coaches are under intense pressure ahead of this derby, with Dwayne Peele and Dy Flanagan being asked whether they are the right men to lead their teams.

For Flanagan, the Dragons’ humiliation against Cardiff at the Arms Park on Boxing Day was the lowest point. In a year when other Welsh teams are getting back on track in a world of cuts and austerity, not being able to attend the derby is the worst that could happen.

Peel’s lowest point came a week before the Scarlets suffered a humiliating Challenge Cup defeat to Georgia’s Black Lion.

A toothless defeat to a team that shares the name of one of Market Street’s packed pubs on that famous October day in 1972 meant the highlights came long before the end of Christmas crackers and the Boxing Day debacle. The Dragons were challenged by Brown’s Ms The Boys for the title of hardest thing to watch on the BBC this festive season.

Of course, neither coach is sure what will happen next. In the cozy Arms Park press room, Flanagan was as affable as ever, shaking hands with all the reporters, but it was clear he was suffering greatly from the loss.

“We can’t do that,” he admitted after the Cardiff nightmare. “If I’m Scarlets, looking at this, I’m licking my lips to play us next week.

“Shake them, they break, press them, they break. It was very good and comfortable in Europe.

“We didn’t have half the pressure that Cardiff put on us and we crumbled. We need to figure out why we fall apart in these stressful times. We have to resolve this.”

Similar story with Peel. The Scarlets manager has had to face some difficult questions this season, with the fans’ forum suspended just days after a tough defeat to the Ospreys at the start of the campaign. Another defeat in the West Wales derby will only raise more questions.

“Victory is the result of good play and precision,” he said after his performance at Parc y Scarlets. “We have to play the right game, but at the moment we are very inconsistent.”

There’s a chance that the New Year could be the springboard for one of these teams to get out of trouble. The Scarlets’ victory over the Dragons last year began a run that has seen them win nine of their last 13 games and reach the European semi-finals.

Much of this coincided with the arrival of Lee Blackett as Llanelli manager. However, don’t expect a repeat this time.

Neither side appears prepared to make a difference at this point. They say it gets dark before the dawn, but that’s not the case in Welsh rugby at the moment.

Financially, none of the Welsh teams have the means to do more than survive. Some do better than others – Cardiff rely heavily on youth out of necessity and the Ospreys have a strong squad – but with budgets slashed to £4.5m next season, things are only going to get worse before they get better. .

Because of this, errors in personnel selection increase even more. There is an argument in the West that the Scarlets team has not been balanced since Wayne Pivac took charge.

Of course, in a sense, they were victims of their own success. They quickly went from a group of unknown talent capable of winning the league to a team of international players. This has ramifications in a system where it is often difficult to extract the full amount from Welsh internationals.

Seven of the 15 players who played against Australia in last year’s World Cup were products of the Scarlets’ academy, but few would say the Scarlets have seen the benefits of what they have produced in recent years.

There have also been a lot of coaching changes since Pivac’s departure, which hasn’t helped, but they now find themselves with a powerful team that could take some time to unravel. The group lacks mass, its back group has diminished and it has not been able to move players at the right time over the years.

The Scarlets have reportedly offered number 8 Sione Kalamafoni just £70,000 to stay this season. Now, given his age, it’s perhaps understandable that the 35-year-old hasn’t received more offers.

But given how consistent he has been as a player, it could be argued that he would be a better investment than some of the other players who received more offers but would play significantly less.

Those responsible for steering the ship in Peel are unlikely to face the same fan criticism as the head coach. Of course, the coach is the easiest to contact.

The same is true at Rodney Parade, where cost-cutting is also taking its toll. However, the risk of starting the season with limited midfield options and no core to replace Will Rowlands did not sit well.

After the defeat to Cardiff, Welsh legend Jonathan Davies said bluntly: “A lot of players aren’t good enough to be professional.” This is an approximate assessment, but many will agree with it.

Scrum-half Rhodri Williams later admitted the blame lay solely with the players. It wasn’t good viewing for anyone except Cardiff fans as the players froze at times.

There is the element of trying to make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear, but trainers will still be judged on the results.

Firing them is not necessarily the solution. Is Flanagan a guilty man when he serves primarily as director of rugby and head coach? He didn’t even get a defensive coach after Simon Cross left for the United States before the start of the season.

As for Peel, he has a more complete coaching background, but will likely be hampered by decisions made previously.

And let’s be honest, neither of them bears personal responsibility for the wasted trying opportunities and countless missed tackles.

Of course, the coach is the first to fall on the sword. As the new year approaches, it’s hard to say there are any spots up for grabs.