2 Russians are losing their men and equipment, but not yet in battle –

After two weeks of war in Ukraine, two defense experts are conducting a due diligence investigation. Their conclusion: The Russians are demoralized, suffer heavy losses and are taken by surprise by the Ukrainian resistance, but they will achieve many of their goals, albeit late.

Russian Major General Vitaliy Gerasimov was killed at the front near the city of Kharkov on Tuesday. He led the wars against the Ukrainian army around the metropolis. The general’s death is striking for several reasons.

First of all, what does a general do at the front? Is there no one else who can lead the troops? “It looks like the middle cadres of the Russian army will soon run out” commander in chief on the battlefield to give orders,” wrote editor-in-chief Christo Grozev crazy cat mocking on Twitter.

Defense expert Ko Colijn of the Clingendael Institute is a bit more cautious in his analysis. “It’s not going well there,” he says. “Otherwise, the Russians won’t send a general to set things right. But Gerasimov’s death doesn’t change much for the Russian strike force, they have a thousand generals there.”

Russians call with unsafe Chinese phones: ‘Very vulnerable’

Another striking detail: The FSB Secret Service officer reported the general’s death to his superior on the other side of the border, via an unsecured line. Last year, the Russian military introduced ERA-protected cryptophones with great fanfare, but they don’t work in Ukraine because their 3G towers were destroyed by their own troops. So they have to call with unsecured phones and local Ukrainian SIM cards.

These speeches were therefore heard by Ukrainians. crazy cat He intercepted these conversations and determined that the FSB agent at the front was looking for his colleague Dmitry Shevchenko in Tula, Russia. There was a long silence when he heard that the general had been murdered. Then Shevchenko began to curse heavily.

Han Bouwmeester teaches military strategy at the Dutch Defense Academy and obtained his PhD on modern deception techniques used by Russia during the annexation of Crimea in 2014. He closely follows the war in Ukraine. According to Bouwmeester, the inability of the Russians to communicate with each other via secure connections makes them “very vulnerable”.

Bouwmeester: “I even understand that Russian soldiers call each other with very cheap Chinese mobile phones, which are easy to access. Then you make it very easy for your opponent to figure out what you are doing.”

A woman is supported by a Ukrainian soldier in Kharkov.

Logistical issues slow progress, but don’t hinder it.

Many videos appear on social networks not only of abandoned and burnt Russian tanks, but also of trucks carrying fuel and other goods. There are also stories of Russian soldiers looking for food and looting shops and houses. “These logistical problems are more likely to delay progress than completely hinder it,” said defense expert Colijn.

Bouwmeester sees “absolute logistical challenges”, but you experience them in every battle. In his opinion, not much should be removed from burned trucks and clogged tanks. “We base our decision on the images we see, but that’s only part of the truth. Elsewhere there may be far fewer problems.”

The Ukrainian army distributed needles and retreated to the cities

The Ukrainian government has released propaganda images saying it believes each of the Russian POWs is holding a military exercise. In addition, there are rumors that Belarusian troops refused to act against the Ukrainians. “Young soldiers who don’t want to fight cause delays, but they are easy to change,” says Colijn. “Or they fly with pilots who have had much longer training and may be more motivated. You see it in Syria and you saw it in the war in Chechnya.”

Bouwmeester points out that the “male” Russian chain of command can cause soldiers to lose motivation. “In the Russian army, the commander is all-powerful. He determines in detail what to do, only junior officers and soldiers do that. You quickly go under the arm of the ghost.”

The great unknown is the Ukrainian army, which did not deal with the enemy in the traditional way, but instead shot needles left and right and then retreated to the cities. “It is difficult for the Russian army to combat this,” says Bouwmeester. “You don’t want to enter a city as an army, it is very difficult to conquer. There can be a sniper in every building, you need a huge army.”

When the Russians conquered Crimea in 2014, saboteurs used advanced units to disable facilities and take politicians hostage. As a result, the Ukrainian government soon found itself against the wall. “They can forget to repeat these operations in Kiev,” Bouwmeester says. “When these kinds of saboteurs show up, they confront the public.”

Parties want to strengthen their position for negotiations in Turkey

On Thursday, negotiators from Russia and Ukraine met again, this time in the Turkish resort of Antalya. According to Bouwmeester, the Ukrainians have a strong position on the battlefield because they are elusive, have shown resistance and have a united population behind them. At the cost of much human suffering and a huge influx of refugees, the Russians have conquered many areas in southern Ukraine and are now besieging Kiev. So they will certainly not come to Turkey empty-handed.

According to Colijn, despite their losses, the Russians are still able to occupy and control Kiev and defeat the Ukrainians militarily. “After all, they’re losing men and supplies, but generally not that much. This setback may even encourage the leadership of the Russian military to continue the dirty war with too much violence and civilian casualties.”