The sanctions against Russia, the gas war, the Nord Stream affair, Moscow’s real economic capabilities. These questions are at the heart of statements by Alexandra Prokopenko, a former adviser to the Russian Central Bank before the war in Ukraine, now residing abroad and an independent analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
The news of these hours is the explosions in the Nord Stream gas pipelines. “Officially from Moscow all sabotage accusations are denied and it is repeated that Russia does not need anything of the kind,” Prokopenko told Corriere della Sera, recounting messages coming from Kremlin-friendly sources of “sabotage by the Americans by pressure Europe to strengthen sanctions”. It is difficult to say whether these rumors “arise independently or behind the direction” of Putin’s media leaders.
In any case, “it will now take a year or more to repair the pipeline, so at best it could restart next winter.” What are Russia’s economic conditions after eight months of sanctions? “We can see in the 2023 budget law that military spending is growing by 40%, to unprecedented levels. Putin has enough funds for next year, but I believe he is not making plans for 2024 or 2025. He is focused on the short term. , with obvious limitations. He doesn’t have the technologies, which he cannot import. Even if Putin puts a lot of money into defense, he cannot send soldiers to war with the money: he has to turn them into weapons, but he has limited possibilities to buy what you are looking for”, explains the former advisor to the Russian Central Bank.
“I don’t want to make predictions about the breaking point, certainly from year to year the economy will get worse and become more primitive in both industry and agriculture. But let’s not forget that Putin did not unleash this war for economic reasons: for those who come after ” , recalls Prokopenko who concludes: “If Putin used the atomic bomb, China and India would break off any relationship with him because in fact he would have exploded their deterrence capacity. It would be a fatal blow for Putin. And he knows it.”
Source: IL Tempo
Emma Fitzgerald is an accomplished political journalist and author at The Nation View. With a background in political science and international relations, she has a deep understanding of the political landscape and the forces that shape it.
