conflict in ukraine
conflict in ukraine
As Russian troops continue to lose ground in Ukraineparticularly in the area of Kharkovthe announcement of partial military mobilization by the president put on could have a much more significant impact in the Russian domestic context than on the battlefield.
Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, Katherine Lawlor, Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes and Frederick W. Kagan of the The Institute for the Study of War who explained why what is happening in Ukraine could compromise the regime of the tsar.
Well, Ukrainian sources noted that partial mobilization is not a serious threat in the short term because the Kiev counter-offensive is moving faster than the possible effects that the mobilization itself could generate.
Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov went so far as to say that the mobilization in Russia is a “Gift”to Ukraine because the Kremlin is located in a “stalemate”, caught between his failures and his determination to keep what he’s gained.
The controversies surrounding the poorly executed partial mobilization, together with the significant Russian defeats in the Oblast of Kharkov it’s at Lymanincreased internal struggle in Moscow.
The ISW (Institute for the Study of War) has identified three main factions in the current Russian nationalist space: i “milblogger” and war correspondents, former Russian officers or prosecutors and veterans, and some of the silovikipeople with significant power bases and their own strengths.
Putin, according to experts, needs to keep the support, support from all three of these factions to support their war effort.
An example of what is happening among groups that support the tsar is represented by the criticism made by the so-called siloviki, led by the Chechen leader. Ramzan Kadyrov and by the financier of the Wagner group Yevgeny Prigozhin, toward Alexandre Lapin, commander of the Russian central military district, held responsible for the defeat of Lyman, but also for the Ministry of Defense led by Sergey Shoigu.
Putin, according to experts, would now find himself in a dilemma.
The Kadyrov-Prigozhin duo cannot risk becoming an enemy, as they desperately need the former’s Chechen forces and the latter’s mercenaries to fight in Ukraine. But neither can it act against the Ministry of Defense, which represents the institutional base carry out the mobilization order and continue the war.
All of this could therefore affect the stability of the Putin regime if it fails to agree with its internal allies. The Kremlin leader, according to experts, cannot afford to lose the support of any of these groups, nor can he satisfy them all as the war continues and Russian troops continue to suffer. losses.
The shocks of Kharkiv and Lyman’s defeats, fueled by partial mobilization and their mismanagement, exposed these deepening cracks within Putin’s team in full view of the population. And they might even start spreading the idea that Putin is not in full control of his base.
The ramifications of such a development for his regime are difficult to predict.
Source: Fan Page IT
Ashley Root is an experienced business journalist and author at The Nation View. With a background in economics and finance, she has a deep understanding of the inner workings of the business world and is able to provide insightful and informative analysis on a wide range of topics.
