“Badly armed men, but risk of accidents with Poland”: what changes with the Belarusian intervention in Ukraine

Faithful to his ally Vladimir Putin, Belarusian President Alexandr Lukashenko announced yesterday that – for fear of a NATO attack on his country – “a joint regional group of troops” will be deployed on the border with Ukraine. This contingent will be composed of Russian and Belarusian soldiers.

“Regarding the worsening situation on the western borders of the State of the Union – Lukashenko said – my answer was simple. The basis of this grouping is the army, the armed forces of the Republic of Belarus.” Lukashenko added that for Ukraine opening a front with Minsk “doesn’t make sense”, but that “the West” is pushing in that direction.

The Belarusian leader – in power for 28 years – did not provide details on the size or purpose of the military contingent, stoking fears that his country could send troops to Ukraine to help Russia’s staggering military campaign. But how well-founded are these fears? And what could Minsk’s role in this war really be? fanpage.it asked the teacher Gastone Brecciahistorian and expert in military theory.

Professor Gaston Breccia

President Lukashenko said yesterday that Belarus and Russia will send a joint military task force on the country’s western borders. Is there a risk of another escalation?

Belarus does not have a significant military force. His eventual entry into the conflict is currently very unlikely: Lukashenko can count on 60,000 poorly armed and poorly motivated men, who among other things serve him in part to maintain control of the internal situation. Belarusian troops would not be able to change the situation in Ukraine, so Lukashenko’s must be understood as a somewhat “empty” but no less effective threat.

For what reason?

His announcement obliges the Ukrainians to keep 20-30 thousand men on the northern front of the country, close to the Belarusian border, which at this moment must necessarily be monitored. Lukashenko’s is the classic threat that – even without doing anything – engages a small portion of the opposing forces. In that sense, it was a smart move. However, I do not see the possibility, at least at this stage of the conflict, of a direct involvement of Belarusian troops in Ukraine.

Lukashenko has already sent men to support Russia during the first attack on Kiev. Could it happen again?

From a strategic point of view now it would not make sense. The Russians must first move some of their armies to Belarus – 30/40,000 men well equipped – and then do what they already tried at the beginning of the war when there was a major offensive towards Kiev forced to retreat by Ukrainian resistance. It was the first real defeat for the Russians. That Putin decides to repeat this maneuver when he is already in deep trouble in Donbass and Kherson seems to me quite unlikely. Now – before winter – it wouldn’t make sense. However, we cannot know what will happen in the spring.

Joint Russian-Belarus military exercise

Yesterday, Alexandr Lukashenko motivated the decision to send a military task force in fear of a NATO attack.

Relations between Belarus and Poland are indeed extremely tense. Attention, the Poles are really “armed”, they have invested a lot to rearm themselves and have positioned a part of the army on the Belarusian border. They are very ready to intervene and defend themselves if necessary, so I wouldn’t want a more or less artfully constructed accident to cause a confrontation between a NATO country and Belarus, which is actually a Russian satellite. This would represent a very dangerous escalation: in fact, this incident would require all NATO members to intervene directly in support of their ally, Poland, and would put European countries, called upon to directly participate in the conflict, in more difficulties.

Today, the New York Times reports on a possible deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus. Is there a risk that a possible attack could start from that country?

Yes, unfortunately it is possible for Belarus to host Russian atomic bombs. But even in this case, I think it is above all intimidation: Putin, if he wants, has the possibility of using intercontinental missiles that – starting from Russian territory – can hit the United States. The transfer of short-range missiles to Belarus must therefore be seen as new blackmail. Putin is saying, “I can hit Warsaw whenever I want with short-range weapons.” From a strategic point of view, however, Russia would have no need to place its missiles in Belarus.