Five Inconvenient Truths About War and Peace Between Russia and Ukraine

There is a lot of talk, in Italy and in the world, about how to end the war between Russia and Ukraine., where pacifism ends and collaboration with Putin begins, what can be understood as a Ukrainian victory and to what extent this victory goes to a regime change in Moscow. There is a lot of talk about this, let’s not hide behind a finger, because winter is coming and so is recession, and governments, families and businesses are legitimately concerned that an escalation of the conflict, or even its continuation, could make the situation worse. situation, our material conditions.

Two factions face off, each with their own good reasons. There are those who argue that the West should support Ukraine to victory, whatever Kiev understands as “victory”. That this battle on Ukrainian soil is worth more than a bill that increases, or a deal that closes, because democracy, the self-determination of a people, the very values ​​of the West are at stake. That any “but” or any distinction is a surrender to Putin and implicit support for his regime. That the Russians are a “terrorist people” against whom to fight an all-out war, and with whom any dialogue is impossible until they rebel in the Kremlin.

There are also those who argue, on the contrary, that the war must end soon, whatever the cost. That arming the Ukrainian resistance exacerbates the conflict. That Zelensky, with his demands and his extremism, is dragging the West into the quagmire of World War III. That the persistence of the crisis will put Western democracies at much more risk than Putin’s war. That the US and Europe must get in the way and end the war, despite the fact that Russian troops are still on Ukrainian soil. That the threat of a nuclear apocalypse requires each of the parties involved to let diplomacy do the talking, rather than bombs.

Everyone has the right to think as they want, and the dialectic of ideas is one of the beautiful things about our part of the world. And from every opinion – let’s start with the basics – good faith must be assumed, contesting it on merit, instead of silencing those who think differently. whether the megaphone of the Kremlin or the Pentagon. Also because it is a situation so much bigger than we are, and so complex, that each simplification, each Manichaeism, are trivializations that come out of the time they encounter. Likewise, every possible outcome is fraught with consequences that will follow us—for better or for worse—for years, if not decades. Consequences that even Nostradamus, today, cannot even imagine.

Precisely for this reason, we tried to align five “uncomfortable” evidences for both factions, five truths that, instead of simplifying the picture, complicate it, in any case. Which trivially show how the outcome of what will happen in the world, as of February 24, is imponderable a priori, but is based, at least, on a series of random combinations that will contribute to determining it. And that yes, it will probably get worse, much worse, before it gets better.

One. Expelling the Russians from Ukraine is OK, but it doesn’t end the war

On one thing, more or less, we almost all agree. This one the best possible outcome of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is the return of the Moscow army beyond the borders which passed on February 24th.

Reality is not a movie, however. And after the Ukrainian military victory, the credits will not start. In all likelihood, the Kremlin will eventually arm itself further, especially if Kiev’s victory sets the stage for Ukraine’s entry into the European Union and NATO.

In view of this perspective, probably European countries should consider permanent sanctions against Moscow and blockade of gas and oil imports, which would have a significant impact on the price of energy and the costs to be borne by households and businesses, even after the war ended. And it is not said – indeed, it is perhaps even likely – that Moscow will continue to bomb Ukraine from its positions across the border. the end of the war between Russia and Ukraine will not be the end of the hostility between us and Moscow. In fact, maybe they’ve just begun.

Two. Things in Moscow could even get worse without Putin

This last piece of evidence is the reason why many think it right to go further and intend to dethrone Vladimir Putin and take him to the court in The Hague to answer for the war crimes committed in Ukraine, as happened with the Serbian president Slobodan Milosevic when, following the American bombing, he lost the elections against Vojislav Koštunica.

The parallels with Milosevic should explain how unrealistic this objective is: Russia is not Serbia and the American bombing of Moscow is not a viable possibility. The possibility remains that Putin will be defeated at the polls, deposed by a revolution, or replaced by a military coup.

Of the three options, perhaps the third is the most likely, but are we so sure that Vladimir Putin’s departure is the viaticum for the advent of liberal democracy in Russia? Everything suggests the opposite: that Russia, both after defeat and after victory, is destined to sink further into a spiral of undemocratic nationalism. Proof of this is the fact that today the foliage against which Putin must protect himself is not that of liberals, but that of hawks like the Chechen. Ramzan Kadyrov and militia chief Wagner Evgenyj Prigozhinwhich after the attack on the Crimean bridge led Putin to entrust command in Ukraine to “General Armageddon” Sergey Surovikin.

Three. The world doesn’t love the West, Russia or not Russia

Another inconvenient truth: we may be interested in having a liberal, democratic Russia as our neighbor, but the rest of the world doesn’t quite think like us. China does not think so, which aims to strengthen an alliance that shifts the world’s geopolitical axis to the East., and for that it needs a regime hostile to the West in Moscow. The countries with which Russia has a military alliance in Asia Minor, the Middle East, Africa do not think so. don’t even think like thatSaudi Arabia, a historic American ally, who made a deal with Russia on the price of oil. A lot of public opinion on the planet doesn’t think that – let’s put our hearts in peace – and they don’t especially think in an anti-Western key. Public opinion, let us not forget, accustomed to decades of American and European imperialism and colonialism to be scandalized by the Russians or Chinese.

Attention: to say that Western geopolitical centrality, or even just American geopolitical centrality, is under discussion is currently counterfactual. But we must be careful with the signals coming from the rest of the world. Because seeing the West succumb, or at least get into trouble against Russia, represents for each of them – on many levels – a great opportunity to increase their regional dominance, gain space for autonomy and abuse of weaker neighbors. One example above all: we both hope that a Russian defeat in Ukraine could extinguish Chinese ambitions for Taiwanso Beijing hopes that the persistence of the Russian conflict will be an opportunity to settle accounts with the rebel island.

Four. Russia is not a democracy, we are

Instead of worrying about the public opinion of others, we should start worrying about our own. Why not, Russia is no longer a democracy, if it ever was. And no, China is not a democracy either. Ours, on the other hand, are. And as spurious as it is, it’s hard not to notice that the two most pro-Ukrainian governments in the West have fallen in the UK and Italy. What, precisely in Italy, despite the Atlanticist proclamations of Giorgia Melonia coalition won the elections whose leaders are those who prided themselves on being a personal friend of Putin, one whose party has a strategic alliance with Putin’s party and one who still claims to have the Hungarian president as a model Victor Orbanthe only one who never stopped having ties to Putin and who declared that he had also won the elections “against Zelensky”.

And once again: may the nationalist right grow more or less throughout Europe. And that in the US President Biden’s approval rating equals 40%, in the face of polls that often give him a loser in a rerun of the 2019 election against a Donald Trump who instead is pushing for a deal with Moscow. .

Here, this is the current situation: think about what it could be like after inflation and recession had hit the well-being of European and American families and businesses hard. It will take calm and a cool head to prevent this war from transferring the very essence of our democracy. And the latter in retrospect would be Putin’s real victory.

Five. The atomic bomb is a real threat (and not the only one)

Last but not least, detail: Vladimir Putin’s Russia is the country with the most atomic bombs in the world. Which in turn has said several times in recent months that it intends to use them if Russian existence – read: its regime – is threatened by outside interference. Today the West is divided between those who think it’s a bluff and those who, as US President Joe Biden has said, are a real threat.

Anyway, Putin plays with the atom with an ease with which we have become accustomed, but that just ten months ago seemed impossible to us, to take control of radioactive sites and bomb nuclear plants, regardless of possible accidents. We do not know that such a facility could be a prelude to the use of an atomic warhead missile on Ukrainian soil. But we know that if that happened we would enter a scenario of total war – no longer cold – between the two great nuclear powers of the globe.

And not only that: because the blockade of trains in Berlin last Sunday – and the consequent Arne Schoenbohm’s resignation, responsible for German cybersecurity – suggest that a dangerous war front could also be opened in the field of hacker attacks on power plants, artificial satellites, internet networks, hospitals. And that all this war potential, in which so much was invested, but which was almost never used, could produce imponderable effects in our lives.

Small, more, detail: the increase in military spendinghas been growing rapidly for nearly a decade worldwide, and not just between Russia, the United States and Europe. In 2021, we hit a record $2 trillion spent in just one year. And as history teaches us, if the world starts to arm itself as much as it can, those weapons will sooner or later go off. Even more so if we continue to fan the fire of war. Or walk like sleepwalkers towards the Apocalypse.