The Kremlin is trying to convince the West to pressure Ukraine to accept a ceasefire. But its real objective, now that the Russian military is in trouble, is to have time to rearm itself and launch a new full-scale attack, in February-March 2023. The independent and well-informed Russian website Meduza is plotting this scenario, after Furthermore, on the Russian side, there have been numerous indications of possible peace negotiations. According to what Meduza writes, Vladimir Putin is actually considering the possibility of resuming the failed talks with Ukraine in the spring. But at the same time, he wants to keep control of the occupied territories in Donbass and doesn’t even want to know about the return of Crimea.
The tactical option now being pursued, say two sources close to the Kremlin and one to the government, is to reach a ceasefire negotiated between the two armies, without directly involving the Russian and Ukrainian presidents. For this, Moscow would also be willing to withdraw from a part of Kherson Oblast, where the Ukrainians are advancing. The Kremlin, Meduza sources explain, is trying to “influence Western leaders” and Turkish President Recep Tayyp Erdogan to persuade Ukraine to resume negotiations with Russia, using the argument that “civilian casualties must be avoided.”
The same sources point out that Putin’s real objective is to take time to prepare a new offensive. The truce will serve to train newly mobilized soldiers and replenish arsenals, in view of a new major offensive to be launched in the final phase of winter. Generally speaking, these conditions are difficult for Ukraine to accept, which has recently repeatedly refused the possibility of negotiations with Putin.
Source: IL Tempo
Emma Fitzgerald is an accomplished political journalist and author at The Nation View. With a background in political science and international relations, she has a deep understanding of the political landscape and the forces that shape it.
