Dear director, those who attack from Covid, perish from Covid. It’s the old saying that even in China it’s very much in vogue right now. As the 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China opens, which for the third time will crown the powerful President of the People’s Republic of China, Xi Jinping, as Secretary General. This time, however, not without tensions and internal struggles, obviously absolutely invisible to most eyes. Dragon’s “mandarins” know well how to suppress them and keep them in check thanks to unparalleled media and digital military control. But “the red emperor”, son of a father who was a companion from the first hour of Mao, has already hinted that he “will move on”: as long as Covid is not completely eradicated, he will not suggest the cancellation of travel and boarding bans. of goods, nor the almost daily molecular tests imposed on the population, nor the closures of activities and borders.
Will China resist all this? Xi is also sure of this because he is used to suffering and winning since his father was purged and ended up working in the countryside and perhaps even in prison at a very young age. Whoever accused her of having “distractedly” spread a virus prepared in a laboratory, in Wuhan, today rebukes Xi and his companions for keeping the country’s doors closed like the Forbidden City.
This is all due to the stubborn virus-fighting strategy that has hit China’s economy, driving it to levels of growth even lower than Italy’s and, in fact, unsustainable for the world’s most populous country.
The appeals of the governors of the most troubled Chinese provinces, which do not even guarantee essential public and social services, found a huge wall in Xi’s obstinacy.
Shandong, Hunan, Guandong and Guanxi are on the brink, with companies failing and many people unemployed. Even in the capital Beijing, there are no longer the drawn shutters, the gigantic deserted shopping malls, the suburban apartment blocks that have just been empty and empty to the point that even among the few neutral observers, there are those who start to turn up their noses. A powerful former member of the Politburo, the party’s decision-making body, said: “If we don’t fire Covid, we will fire those who couldn’t beat it.” Not to mention the widening gap between Beijing, increasingly closed in on itself, and Shanghai, with an incredible amount of dollar billionaires constantly looking to the West.
As the epidemic continues, the “new” leadership must also deal with a real bursting of the housing bubble. The more than justified objective of consolidating and increasing the Chinese “middle class” in the last 5-7 years has led the public administration to incredibly “pump” the sector, overloading, on the one hand, the apartment and office market and, on the other side, pressuring citizens and companies to buy real estate at any cost. It appears that China’s top 10 real estate companies, including the colossus Evergrande and at-risk Cifi Holdings, have racked up bad loans of around $1 trillion, which is why there is much concern in the government.
Also, it may just be the tip of the iceberg. Beijing faces a complicated puzzle: if it allows real estate developers to fail, it will drag many banks with it; if instead it consolidated its debt, it would allow an opaque and unsustainable business model, with unhealthy complicity between real estate, banks and city halls. With consumption slumping and the housing market blocked, the Chinese middle class, represented by the hyperbolic number of 800 million people, is suffering a lot. Their standard of living has already been partially demolished and, more importantly, their hopes for a better future are dimmed.
This is the backdrop against which the CCP will hold its 20th Congress, a pivotal moment for both the Chinese Communist Party and the entire nation. The summit meets first to elect, so to speak, the party’s leadership and establish the country’s priorities and then, if necessary, change the party’s statute. One wonders what the makeup of the Politburo and Central Committee will be and whether an heir to Xi will be appointed. In addition, the appointment of the various most important positions and the definition of “areas of priority interest” (economy, sociocultural trends, international relations) can indicate the direction that China will take. The current government will remain in office until March 2023, led by current Prime Minister Li Keqiang. But who will be the next prime minister? Only two candidates have, on paper, the experience necessary to be able to aspire to this position: Wang Yang and Hu Chunhua, but neither of them is a “man” of the President. From the results of the party congress it will also be understood what the real attitude towards Russia will be after the events in Ukraine. There are those who believe that Xi may abandon his unconditional support for Putin and press for mediation. An act that would put him at the center of the world stage, forcing the US and Europe to change their strategy towards China, which has already been sidelined by the Trump presidency. It would be a great opportunity for the Italian economy after the Russian sanctions. With fighting raging in the centre-right, there is hope for Xi and the communists. We are very bad.
Source: IL Tempo
Emma Fitzgerald is an accomplished political journalist and author at The Nation View. With a background in political science and international relations, she has a deep understanding of the political landscape and the forces that shape it.
