Because the cold will have negative consequences for Russians in Ukraine, according to General Tricarico

for weeks now Russia undertook a new military strategy in Ukraine cinsisting on energy infrastructureand the country with the aim of creating electrical blackouts and weaken the morale of the Ukrainian population, especially due to winter and cold. A strategy that, in a way, is bearing fruit, as the Kiev government itself has admitted that Ukraine is preparing for widespread electricity blackouts and that energy will be increasingly rationed in the coming months with all the consequences of the case. We discussed the possible implications of this situation with the general Leonardo Tricaricopresident of the Icsa Foundation and former Chief of Staff of the Air Force.

The Russian general is continuously bombing Ukrainian energy infrastructure and the expected blackouts are increasing. What influence will this have on the conflict situation in view of the cold and winter?

First of all, we need to understand a concept, that energy infrastructure is a legitimate objective. This is in the military doctrine of any country, including those of NATO. Therefore, we must not be surprised or scandalized. That is, of course, as long as non-combatants are deliberately untargeted. However, Russia in general is not credited with an operational capability such as the collapse of Ukraine’s entire power system, both electrical and otherwise. So no matter how effective and profitable this strategy is, I don’t think the Russians are capable of carrying this work through.

In your opinion, then, will this strategy adopted by the Kremlin not weaken Ukrainian morale and put pressure on Zelensky and the Kiev government to find an agreement, for example?

I don’t think that with this job the Russians can bring the whole of Ukraine to its knees. In my opinion, Kiev, on the other hand, is able to absorb this too, by organizing itself. Much more is needed to drain the morale and spirit of the Ukrainian people, starting from Zelensky down. It is certainly an effective measure, there is no doubt about it, but in itself it is not the premise to weaken the spirits of Ukrainians. It is certainly a very difficult situation for Kiev, which reflects a change in the doctrine of Russian behavior, probably due to the alternation of generals leading this operation, but winter will hit the Russians more at the front. The blackouts for the Ukrainians will be added to other inconveniences of another kind that winter brings and that, however, affect both sides.

Therefore, the Russians will also suffer the winter

In my opinion, the inconveniences will affect the Russians to a greater extent precisely because they will have a difficulty of movement that exposes them more and more to the Ukrainian military action that has very detailed information and weapons that allow them to attack with precision. If I had to make an estimate, I would say that winter certainly weakens Russian capacity more significantly than Ukrainian capacity.

General Leonardo Tricarico

According to Kiev, the Russians are running out of long-range missiles and so are turning to Iran to buy new ones, in your opinion is it plausible that the Kremlin is short of weapons to continue this strategy?

It is not propaganda, I can intuitively say that Russia has exhausted almost all reserves and there is very little left. That’s why they’re trying to get the two weapons here and there, but also the men, pulling them out of every possible human market, from prisons to Syria.

Could Western anti-missile military supplies to Ukraine put a stop to this Russian strategy?

I believe that no one in the West questions or doubts the fact that Ukrainians must have a missile defense system from planes, helicopters and drones. Different speech and for the other weapons, we must be very cautious because Putin made it clear: an attack that endangers Russian integrity can certainly give effect to retaliation by all means.