Why the Russians announced Kherson’s withdrawal and what happens now: Admiral Di Paola on Fanpage.it

The Russians announced the withdrawal of the Kherson🇧🇷 Yesterday afternoon, the Moscow Defense Ministry announced that troops will withdraw from the east bank of the Dnieper River, which divides Ukraine in two. This is a very specific military and political choice that could be the sign, for the first time since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, of a willingness to negotiate on the part of Moscow. Putin did not comment on the defeat, contrary to what he has done in the past with the supposed and real victories, as Admiral Giampaolo Di Paola, former defense minister, explains to Fanpage.it.

“It is clear that this is a defeat from every point of view, both because Kherson’s control considerably brings Ukrainian forces closer to Crimea and therefore the possibility of reaching it with the systems they have at their disposal, and because Kherson and his province had been declared annexed, so politically the fact of abandoning what the Russians now consider Russian territory is indeed a considerable defeat. Putin’s silence? Yours is a silence that speaks loudly. If you hadn’t made this decision probably would have lost all the territories conquered so far.”

Russian troops are leaving Kherson: can we talk about a new phase of the conflict?
If we look at the map of Ukraine at this point we see that Kherson is the only Ukrainian city that the Russians conquered, also boasting the victory, among other things Kherson was founded by Catherine the Great in the 18th century, therefore strongly linked to Russia.

The problem is that Kherson was no longer defensible because the Ukrainian advance on the southern front made it impossible to supply the city and Moscow troops, so the last ones west of the Dnieper would have isolated themselves and therefore would have been captured or killed. At this point, despite great political and military cost, the Russians are withdrawing from Kherson to entrench themselves on the east bank of the river.

Admiral Gianpaolo Di Paola

What does this withdrawal represent for the Russians?
It is clear that this is a defeat from every point of view, both because Kherson’s control considerably brings Ukrainian forces closer to Crimea and therefore the possibility of achieving it with the systems at their disposal, and because Kherson and his province has been declared so politically that to abandon what Russians now consider Russian territory is indeed a considerable defeat.

So it is clear that we are entering a new phase, because now Crimea will be more under control, as well as that eastern part of the Dnieper, now under Russian control, which represents the only land connection between Crimea and Russia proper. Before the February 24 invasion, Crimea was linked to Russia only through the famous Kerch bridge, which was then destroyed, so the occupation of these areas represented a fundamental land connection: if these areas are under Ukrainian control, it will be difficult to continue. the defense of that area for the Russians.

What might be the next moves on both sides?
The Russians have strengthened on the left line of the Dnieper, waiting for the next winter to freeze Ukrainian operations, and meanwhile, the reserves in formation are ready to fight, so they can hope to partially rebuild the defense and withstand a new offensive. 🇧🇷 It should also be said that the Ukrainians will not only take control of Kherson, but will be able to approach the east side of the Dnieper also from the north, at the right moment the Ukrainians will offer a pincer maneuver, west to east and north to south. 🇧🇷

Putin silently commented on Kherson’s withdrawal
For Putin, making such a statement represents a major defeat, but there is no doubt that the order that came from the defense minister, knowing how things developed, came with Putin’s full consent. Kherson’s battle is a military and political battle, those who are silent consent and so it is clear that Putin is supporting that choice: he realized that Kherson was now not very defensible, and if he wants to hope to keep what he has achieved , he must reorganize his defenses. Putin’s silence is a silence that speaks loudly because when victories were announced he did so loudly, while in the face of defeat he was silent.

Could this withdrawal signify a willingness to negotiate?
The fact that they have ceded conquered territory may mean that they are signaling to the United States a willingness to negotiate, of course, giving up certain provinces to save what can be saved. Of course, Putin’s position is much more open to negotiation. But Ukrainians are unlikely to be willing to negotiate now, as they have an edge and are close to regaining what they are.

A negotiation begins with a ceasefire and at the moment it is not an option that the Ukrainian troops would consider, it would not be in their interest: at this moment the Ukrainians are on the wave of the expectation of victory and first they will try to take back so much territory legitimately it is up to him to negotiate . The balance is on the side of the Ukrainians and it is normal to think that they would reject a ceasefire, also because it is true that the Russians are weakened and on the defensive, but if there was a deceleration in the winter fighting, the Russians could reconstitute and regroup.

If, on the one hand, we are open to negotiations, on the other, Putin, feeling trapped, can he increase the atomic escalation?
At this point we say that the nuclear threat was verbal, to try to scare and instill fear in Westerners. At the moment, the center of gravity of Putin’s effort is to try to weaken the will of the Ukrainian population and pressure the Ukrainians to pressure their leader, Zelensky, to sit at the negotiating table, the second concerns the Europeans, that is, try to break the unity of Europeans and, therefore, the support they have given Ukraine so far, in a cohesive and unified way.

Therefore, the threat of the use of nuclear energy is a way of instilling fear in Europeans, of loosening their cohesion and their support, but in concrete terms today Putin thinks of using a tactical nuclear weapon I think is unlikely. At the same time, it is clear that Putin wants and must get out of this situation well, and at some point he will have to account to the Russians for the disaster he has caused and is causing. When cornered, however, it is difficult to understand how he will react.