Ispi explains why we are far from the war between NATO and Russia after the missiles fall in Poland

conflict in ukraine

The interview with Eleonora Tafuro Ambrosetti, political analyst at ISPI: “Missiles crashed in Poland? It was an accident, Russia is not ready for an open confrontation with NATO. Put on? The fact that he kept a low profile for days is puzzling.”

Interview with Eleonora Tafuro Ambrosetti
political analyst at ISPI-Institute of International Political Studies, specialist in issues related to Russia, Caucasus and Central Asia.

Edited by Ida Artiaco

conflict in ukraine

“The missiles that landed in Poland yesterday, hoping to learn more from official investigations, I don’t think that’s one of them. provocation direct from Russia to NATO, as a accident resulting from Moscow’s brutal missile attack on Ukraine. Nobody wants confrontation🇧🇷 I think we are still a long way from the Russia-West war that has been feared in recent hours.”

So Eleonora Tafuro Ambrosetti, political analyst at the ISPI-Institute for International Political Studies, an expert on issues relating to the Russia, Caucasus and Central Asia region, commented what happened yesterday in the Polish village of Przewodow, on the border with Ukraine, after the fall of two missiles that killed two civilians, with a reflection on the scenarios that are opening now and on a possible extended war, between NATO on the one hand and Moscow on the other.

Eleonora Tafuro Ambrosetti
Eleonora Tafuro Ambrosetti

Dr. Tafuro, tones lowered after the indiscretions first launched by Biden who spoke of Ukrainian anti-aircraft missiles on Polish territory and not Russian ones. What is the current situation?

“The situation we find ourselves in now falls within the scope of Article 4 of the NATO Treaty. There is a threat to the security of one of the members and there are consultations to understand its nature and what to do, even though Poland has not requested its activation If the nature of the attack on Warsaw were verified, Article 5 on collective defense could be triggered, but even there the eventual entry into war by individual members is not immediate, as each one has a certain amount of discretion to understand what kind of response they want. want to implement depending on the type of attack the article 11 which preserves each member’s constitutional processes regarding the use of force by individual states or not. However, we are still a long way from the NATO-Russia war that was feared last night.”

What can happen now?

“There could still be very tough answers. Some experts have suggested imposing a no flight zone also about Ukraine. For me, the most plausible hypothesis remains that, at the time of reinforcement from the eastern flank of NATO, therefore Poland and Romania, two countries that have an important strategic value and whose weight will increase more and more, and obviously the renewed support from the military point of view to Kiev”.

Western leaders appear to be very cautious as they await official investigations, unlike Moscow, which has used the word “escalation” openly. What do these two attitudes tell us about the future developments of the conflict?

“These are dynamics that we have seen since the beginning of the conflict, in 2014, not only since last February, with mutual accusations between Russia and Ukraine. I believe that the cautious attitude of Biden and other European leaders is the most appropriate at this moment. go into a direct military confrontation.”

Even for war it is not convenient for either side…

“I don’t think so. Russia is already in a complex military situation, so it’s clear that a possible entry into the war by NATO, which has immense military superiority, would not benefit Moscow at all. That’s why I don’t think that it was a deliberate attack. Many think that last night’s events were the result of a provocative attitude to see how far NATO is willing to go. To me, based on the assessments available so far, the hypothesis of a incident stemming from the brutal missile attack against Ukraine which also hit targets close to the border. In short, I find it hard to believe that this was a direct provocation.”

Even if there is no escalation, there will be an escalation of confrontation. How does Italy fit into this context?

“At the moment, our country can do nothing but follow developments and adapt to NATO decisions. In recent years, Italy has shown itself to be a responsible partner at the Alliance and European level, so I don’t think there will be changes even with the new government, at least not at this stage. I don’t see a leading role for you, but not even on the sidelines”.

What happened to Putin?

“He is keeping a low profile these days, he didn’t even go to the G20 in Bali sending Minister Lavrov in his place, so I don’t exclude that he will intervene in the matter in the future, but his silence now is enigmatic. He is making others speak in his place and the fact that he is alone is something we should question ourselves. It’s a low profile that we’ve been seeing for a few days now.”

Source: Fan Page IT