Who launched the missile that landed in Poland: all hypotheses on the ground

conflict in ukraine

Both Poland and NATO have ruled out that the missile that fell yesterday in Przewodow was deliberately launched by Russia. The hypothesis is that it was a Ukrainian S-300 out of trajectory. Zelensky however denies: “The rocket is not ours, I have no doubts”.

Edited by Davide Falcioni

conflict in ukraine

Until the last night of existence Przewodow – Polish village a few kilometers from the Ukrainian border – almost nobody knew about it: 413 inhabitants, according to the last population census, most of them employed in agriculture and lately very alarmed by the continuous Russian missile launches in Lviv, less than 100 kilometers away in a straight line.

Last night, however, Przewodow risked becoming the casus belli of an escalation of the conflict in Ukraine: a missile did indeed hit a farm killing two workers aged 58 and 60, Bogdan W. and Bogdan C., both residents of the area and both at the end of the workday. For hours the whole world was in suspense: the first hypothesis that circulated in the media, in fact, was that of a Russian rocket that accidentally fell in Poland, a circumstance that could be interpreted as an attack – albeit not voluntary – on a member country from NATO. With all the consequences of the case.

But how did things go? What caused the incident that could have triggered a world war? And what type is the missile that landed in Przewodow?

What are S-300 missiles

Start from here. What killed the two Polish workers would be a Soviet and later Russian-made S-300 surface-to-air missile used by several countries – including Ukraine – for their air defenses. The rocket is about 7 meters long and is usually launched from systems mounted on large trucks. These missiles are capable of aiming at the target – be it a warplane or another missile – with the aim of hitting and shooting it down. Exactly for this purpose, the Ukrainian armed forces have deployed numerous S-300s in recent months: to try to intercept Russian rockets, preventing them from reaching energy infrastructure, military depots, weapons or often civilian buildings.

Poland: “We were not attacked”

The deliberate and voluntary attack on Poland was avoided in the last few hours. After an analysis of the missile’s wreckage, the Polish president Andrzej Duda he said: “There is absolutely no indication that this is a direct attack on Poland. Poland was not a target for rockets. So, in fact, Poland was not attacked”. The country’s leader specified that “in all likelihood it was an S-300 rocket produced in Russia in the 1970s. to protect Ukrainian territory”. That territory was the target of a very intense missile attack by Moscow yesterday.

Polish President Duda
Polish President Duda

Poland: “We do not rule out intentional provocation”

Warsaw then partially corrected the kick. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawieck, referring to Parliament, said: “We cannot exclude that the bombing of Ukraine right on the border with Poland is a planned operation, a Russia’s intentional provocation to lead to situations like yesterday in Przewodów. Unfortunately, there are no countries in the world that protect all their airspace”. In short, not a direct attack from Moscow, but a mistake somehow “provoked” by the armed forces commanded by Putin.

NATO: in Poland it fell Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile

At the end of an extraordinary meeting of Atlantic Council ambassadors, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also explained that Poland was not the victim of a Moscow raid: “Investigations into the incident are ongoing, we have to wait for the result but we have no evidence that the explosions were the result of a deliberate attack and we have no evidence that Russia is preparing an attack on NATO.” According to Stoltenberg “preliminary investigation results indicate that the accident was provoked by a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile”, a country that nevertheless”has no flaws”. What happened, in fact, appears to be “the result of the massive launch of Russian missiles in Ukraine. This is proof that Putin’s war creates dangerous situations. Putin must stop this war.”

Zelensky: “The missile is not ours, I have no doubts”

The hypothesis that those that fell in Poland were Ukrainian rockets was decisively rejected by Kiev: “The missile is not ours, I have no doubts”, said President Volodymyr Zelensky responding to journalists’ questions and explaining that he had received reports from the Ukrainian armed forces and air force: “I can only rely on them”. As for the investigation into the missile that fell yesterday in Poland, l Ukraine has the “right” to participate in it. “Can’t we already reach the final conclusions? Do we have the right to be part of the investigation team? Sure,” Zelensky said.

The investigative hypothesis: Ukrainian missile crashed in Poland

In summary, according to the Polish and NATO statements, it seems very likely that what happened yesterday in Przewodów was an accident. The hypothesis of a deliberate attack on an Atlantic Alliance country by Russia seems to have been completely rejected. On the other hand, the thesis prevails that an S-300 missile from the Ukrainian air defenses – which was trying to intercept another missile launched by Russia over Ukraine – missed the target, or went off its trajectory, ending up in Polish territory killing two people.

More details will be known only after the investigation is completed. Certainly, however, what happened yesterday demonstrates how unintentional incidents can lead to an escalation of conflict, dragging NATO into war as well.

Source: Fan Page IT