Why Ukraine Risks Becoming Europe’s Afghanistan: General Bertolini’s Analysis

The danger of an escalation is always present and we must never forget that it could be nuclear. The future of this conflict? The new perspective is one of a protracted war, a European Afghanistan that would annihilate both Russia and Ukraine.🇧🇷 So stop fanpage.it The generally Italian Marco Bertoliniformer commander of the Joint Operational Command and the Folgore Brigade, as well as President of the National Association of Paratroopers of Italy.

“I think a new perspective is now emerging, namely a shift of responsibility from NATO to the European Union for a protracted war, a sort of European Afghanistan which would nevertheless exhaust European resources and destroy Ukraine and Russia – the general’s words – tactically the war that is taking place in Donbass is a rather bloody war that can be compared in some respects to the First World War, because it entails heavy losses on the part of military units, and the more the dead increase, the harder it will be reach a negotiated solution”.

After withdrawing from Kherson, Russia has never stopped its advance
We are in a new phase in which the Russians have gone from a political phase intended to provoke a change at the top of Ukraine with a show of force, but which did not have the desired effects, to a phase of territorial expansion, conquering a large part of the Ukrainian territory. , in particular the Donbass area. The latter was followed by a Ukrainian counter-offensive necessary for the reconquest of Kharkiv. Now we are facing a fourth phase in which the Russians change their strategy: they have realized that with the forces they employed in the first phase they cannot continue what is a true war that is what it has become.

General Marco Bertolini

That’s why they are organizing for something different, a partial mobilization has been carried out that will put at least 300,000 men in combat in a few months, and to give these men time to be employable, Russia has changed its position: moving from an offensive ground posture to a Kherson defensive withdrawal. Now it is developing a true war action with large air interventions against the Ukrainian energy potential, this to try to break the Ukrainian resistance.

What could happen?
At this point, I believe that on their part there is an expectation with the new forces that will arrive to develop again a land action capable of making them reach at least those territorial objectives that they initially proposed, that is, Donbass and Crimea, as well as the Oblast of Zaporizhia . For this, forces are needed that they currently do not have because they did not consider them necessary at the outset, since they considered this an operation of limited scope. Instead, we are now faced with a far-reaching operation. What the Russians probably hope to do is to be able to go back on the offensive by completing the occupation of Donbass.

What are the risks?
We face several risks, the first is that of an escalation as has been talked about for some time: NATO and the European Union are spending a lot to try to bring the two belligerents to a negotiation, but they are also very exposed and that cannot do anything more than to approach the fearsome prospect of a climb. And let’s not forget that it can also be nuclear. And nuclear evolution is not negligible, because we are talking about a catastrophic scenario. In this regard, it must be said that the behavior of Biden and Stoltenberg was very responsible when there was the incident with the missile that fell in Poland: both immediately neutralized the danger explaining that it was not a Russian action, on the contrary, it was immediately hypothesized by Zelenski .

The point is that we are always faced with the possibility of a high risk, that is, the possibility of a serious accident like the one with the missile in Poland or an accident involving the factory in Zaporizhia where artillery shells continue to arrive that can trigger accidents with leaks. of radioactive material. In this case, regardless of who provoked it, it could lead Western public opinion to take a step further towards direct involvement in the conflict, a symptom of an escalation.

What are the prospects for this conflict?
I believe that a new perspective is now emerging, namely a transfer of responsibility from NATO to the European Union for a long-term war, a kind of European Afghanistan. Europe is launching a military support operation for Ukraine which could be the sign of a change of perspective from a short-lived war that ends with a winner and a loser to a long-lasting war in Europe that would however deplete European resources but destroy both Ukraine and Russia, who would pay an equally high price.

Tactically, the war that is taking place in Donbass is a rather bloody war that can be compared in some respects to the First World War with positional combat and opposing trenches, and it is a bad sign because this type of war entails heavy losses on part of military units and the more dead increase, the more difficult it will be to reach a negotiated solution.