War in Ukraine, did the Russians dump Putin? What the research really says

If you stop and think about it, it might seem paradoxical. As the Russian people – according to the polls taken at the Kremlin government desks and reported by the “Corriere della Sera” – confirm their trust in Vladimir Putin, if then most people’s desire remains to sign peace negotiations that would end conflict? Also because, at this moment, the last “tsar” seems to be going in only one direction, at least until the western front stops thinking about an unconditional surrender of the Russians. However, in November, according to poll estimates cited by the newspaper, 79% of respondents agreed with Putin. Although lower than the 84% in June, the confidence of 4 out of 5 people translates into an indisputable fact: the leader is still far from being abandoned. And if that wasn’t enough, the proof is that, when asked about the name of the politician who arouses the most confidence, 39% of the sample mentioned his name. At an abysmal distance are current Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, with 17%, Chancellor Sergey Lavrov and Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, with 14 and 12%, respectively.

It is true that the sample used by the surveys is equally significant. Two thousand respondents from an unlimited population of 143 million inhabitants. However, these results are valuable, not least because they are almost similar to those obtained by the Levada Center, one of the last non-governmental strongholds, therefore independent, that carries out sociological research in Moscow. “Putin’s popularity, stable for twenty years, also demonstrates that there are currently no figures of comparable stature in our country’s politics,” said the director of the State Center for Humanistic Research, Marat Mardanov, enthusiastically.

At the same time, however, and here lies the paradox, the Russian people now declare themselves judged by war against Volodymyr Zelensky. When asked by the Levada Center, “Are you worried about current events in Ukraine?” 42% answered “a lot”, 38% “a lot” and only 7% felt serene. The concern is latent, the misunderstanding of Putin’s military strategy is increasingly accentuated. Denis Volkov, director of the Levada Center, says that the number of supporters of the peace talks went from zero to current numbers after partial mobilization started. “Now we feel uncertainty, not only a military threat, but an economic one. And the desire for a quick end grows ». It remains to be seen what will come of it. Unlimited trust in Putin or the desire to return to peace. One of the two figures seems destined to collapse, barring a drastic change of course by the Tsar.