“Imminent Invasion”. Secret services on alert: Russia’s next target

The head of Moldova’s security services, Alexandru Mustiata, warns of a “very high risk” of a new Russian offensive in Transnistria, the eastern region of the country, on the border with Ukraine. The offensive could start at the beginning of the year: “The question is not whether the Russian Federation will undertake a new advance towards Moldovan territory, but when it will do so”. The Moldovan chief of 007 said his agency believes Moscow is evaluating different scenarios for reaching Moldova and that an offensive could be launched in January-February or later in March-April. Transnistria, controlled by pro-Russian separatists, is permanently home to 1,500 Russian troops and a large weapons depot.

Subsequently, the Intelligence Services themselves clarified that much will depend on the “developments of the war in Ukraine”. “Based on our information, Russia could move forward to create a corridor with Transnistria, which is the territory of Moldova. What will happen next? We can discuss his intentions regarding Chisinau, but there is a real and very high risk,” Mustiata continued. In his opinion, Moscow may also be interested in the ammunition depot located in the pro-Russian separatist region, which is the largest in Europe.

Last spring, the Russian military said it wanted to conquer the Ukrainian Black Sea coast and reach as far as Transnistria. Now the security forces in Chisinau fear this hypothesis again, while the Kiev government talks of a possible new Russian offensive early next year. On December 6, in Kiev, the Prime Ministers of Moldova and Ukraine, Natalia Gavrilița and Denys Shmyhal, agreed to cooperate on air defense and improvements in border control, but also on peace and security in the Moldovan region of Transnistria.