Covid, the research that embarrasses Beijing. “A million dead”, what happens

A new wave of infections and deaths that brings different aspects to light. On the one hand, there seems to be a clear disconnect between official and real numbers. On the other hand, the fact that, after the protests that led to the abandonment of the Covid-zero line, the situation in China got out of control. In fact, the gigantic Asian country risks reaching a million deaths from the wave of Covid-19 infections after the relaxation of the zero tolerance line restrictions in relation to the virus. This is the projection of three professors at the University of Hong Kong, according to whom reopening nationwide could lead to 684 deaths per million people, or about 964,400 deaths in the country of 1.4 billion inhabitants. The rise in infections could put a strain on the health care system, according to a research paper cited by CNN, pending peer review.

Easing restrictions at the national level will lead to a demand for hospitalizations between 1.5 and 2.5 times greater than hospital capacity: the health collapse scenario could be avoided if China accelerated the administration of vaccine withdrawal doses and antiviral drugs. With 85% of the population covered by the four doses of vaccination, and with 60% antiviral coverage, the number of deaths could be reduced by more than a quarter of the estimate, between 26% and 35%, according to the funded study , in part, by the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the Hong Kong government.

China, which last week announced that it was stopping the calculation of asymptomatic infections (which until then represented about 90% of new daily cases), has recorded only seven cases of deaths from Covid-19 (of which five today) since the easing national. of restrictions on December 7, but the actual number of deaths could be much higher. However, China’s National Health Commission made it known that it will count as deaths from Covid-19 only those attributable to a collapse of the respiratory system due to the virus, thus excluding from the official accounting the deaths, especially among the elderly, who contracted the virus. virus, but who suffered from previous pathologies.

The scenario for the coming weeks is not the best: according to the forecast of one of the best known Chinese epidemiologists, Wu Zunyou, the current wave of infections could last until mid-January, while from late January to mid-February China expects a second wave, following the exodus of hundreds of millions of Chinese for the holidays linked to the Lunar New Year, which will fall on January 22 next year. The third wave is expected as a result of the counter-exodus after the holidays, between late February and mid-March 2023. Meanwhile, the interactive press speaks, in some cities, of queues of hearses in front of the cremation ovens.