Republican mobilization disappears

The most likely scenario for the second round of the French presidential election, scheduled for April 24, is a repeat of the five-year duel between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen. This is evident from all polls, which also predict the victory of the incumbent president in the last round. Macron’s electoral expectations, however, have shown a marked deterioration in recent days, paralleling Le Pen’s improvement. The victory of the current tenant of the Eliseu does not appear to be in jeopardy as he holds a whopping ten point lead, but the rapprochement between the two recently observed candidates is still worrying.

In any case, Macron’s advantage over Le Pen in this hypothetical second round would have been clearly less than what Macron himself won in 2017. Thus, the incumbent president got two-thirds of the vote, that is, he doubled the support of those who won. . For an ultra-candidate. Had the predictions come true a month before the second round, Macron would have had a much lower result today. The average March poll gives the president less than 60% of the vote, while Le Pen is expected to have more than 40%. The difference between them would have halved by more than 30 points five years ago.

If we go back 20 years ago, when the far right first took part in the second round of the presidential election, it surprisingly defeated socialist candidate Lionel Jospin, then National Front leader Patriarch Le Pen got at least 18%. Compared to Jacques Chirac, who surpassed 80%. The trend is more than clear: far-right voting in the last presidential election has risen from 20% to 33% and could exceed 40% in less than a month. Or what’s the same, the advantage over the far right has increased from 60 points 20 years ago to 30 years and this time it can reach 15 points.

What is the reason for this evolution? Research data on this is absolute. In 2002, when Le Pen Senior first advanced to the second round, there was an extraordinary intensity among voters from other parties to support Chirac and block the way to the far right. More than 80% of those who voted for Jospin in the first round elected a Conservative leader, as did 85% of the central electorate or 71% of the left electorate. The Republican mobilization to defend democracy saw Chirac win over 80% of the vote.

Faced with a similar scenario in 2017, this time in Marine Le Pen’s runoff election, this Republican mobilization was more nuanced among voters of candidates eliminated in the first round. Among socialists, Macron’s vote was 10 points lower than Chirac’s, while that of Melenchon’s left-wing voters was 25 points lower. Only half of the conservative votes supported Macron.

This time the data is even worse. Of those who expressed their intention to vote for Melenchon in the first round, only 30% would support Macron in the second round. Only two-thirds of Anna Hidalgo voters and 46% of those who vote for the conservative Pekres. Most of the rest will refrain from choosing. Nearly half of Melenchon’s voters, a quarter of socialists and conservatives, say yes. So Macron’s lead is now half what it was five years ago.

The data shows that this is not to say that there has been a significant shift in support for the far right (although there is some), but there was calmness in the Republican majority that could have voted too far for the candidate. From his postulates, not only to prevent the victory of the far right, but also to send a signal that the French electorate did not want to accept the normalization of the participation of the ultras.

Today, this democratic response, the Republican mobilization, is no longer taking place, which is an indicator of the degree of normalization that the far right has achieved, and also tells us about the consequences of any polarization hindering voters. Other forces to accomplish a goal understandably beyond the reach of a hard-core guerrilla division.

France sends a message and its echo echoes beyond its borders. Come on.

Source: La Neta Neta