Russian forces in Ukraine launched an offensive in the Luhansk region, according to the Institute for War Studies, which mentioned in its latest report that “significant elements of at least three Russian divisions” are conducting offensive operations in this sector. According to the think tank, this “marks that the Russian offensive has begun, although Ukrainian forces have so far prevented Russian forces from gaining a significant advantage”. The ISW added that the pace of Russian operations on the Svatove-Kreminna line west of Luhansk “has increased significantly over the past week”. West of Svatove and Kreminna near Kupyansk.
Therefore, only in eastern Ukraine, with very limited attacks and without significant success. “It is unlikely that Russia will attempt an attack involving the passage of Dnipro: it would be extremely complex and costly.” This was written by British intelligence in one of their latest reports on the situation on the ground in Ukraine. In the document released by the London Ministry of Defense – intelligence describes the situation of “constant conflicts and reconnaissance in the complex network of islands and waterways that make up the Dnipro delta since Russia withdrew its forces from the West Bank” in November 2022″.
Scenario to exclude
It is almost certain that Russian forces used small boats to maintain a presence on key islands; Ukraine has successfully deployed long-range artillery to neutralize Russian outposts several times. Kinburn overlooks Dnipro Bay. Both sides aim to maintain their presence in these areas, presumably to control sea access to the strategically important river and to raise the alarm against any attempts by rivals to launch a major offensive along the river. Attempting an attack by bypassing Dnipro: it would be extremely complex and costly.”
However, according to Gustav Gressel of the European Council on Foreign Relations, there is a scenario that should be completely excluded: a stalemate in conflict. “Putin is only interested in complete victory as he describes it, and because he has invested so much in the war, he will not accept any other deal than this. There may be operational stagnations where both sides regroup and replenish. But these will remain pauses, Putin’s willingness to continue the war, “It is evident from the way it actually blocks any serious negotiations by proposing absolutely unacceptable preconditions for Kyiv,” explains the expert, “undefined circumstances.” The war in Ukraine is currently at an intermediate stage – a struggle for advantage. Neither Moscow nor Kyiv are interested in negotiating. because both sides still want to win, or at least to improve their position on the battlefield and thus be in a stronger position to make future deals.
Three stages of the war in Ukraine
The first phase of the invasion, which began on February 24, 2022, resulted in a epoch-making fiasco for Putin’s forces “repulsed by casualties” from the north, then from the Kharkiv region in September, and then again from the North Kherson Oblast. Kherson region west of the Dnieper in November. The second phase was an attempt at a war of attrition in which thousands of Russian mercenaries and convicts were sacrificed for small territorial gains around the cities of Bakhmut and Soledar, with mass rocket attacks on power plants, electricity transmission infrastructure and water systems.
This second phase of the conflict was almost as complete a defeat for Putin and his followers as the first. Russia has indeed depleted most of its cruise missile arsenal, and although Ukraine’s power grid is battered, the lights are on everywhere and Ukraine’s will to fight is not extinguished, albeit with limitations. The third phase is about to begin as it was written on it. Guardian Journalist Julian Borger: “An all-out war in which combined weapons (mechanized infantry, artillery, air power and possibly waterborne assault) are used to overcome specific positions to gain a decisive advantage. The world has not seen anything like it since the Iran war. Iraq hasn’t seen anything like it since the 1980s, and Europe since World War II.” The death toll in the Bosnian War has already exceeded 100,000. “In this next phase of the war, launching a massive attack will be a huge undertaking, fraught with risks for both sides. Attacking fixed positions has always cost more lives and machines than defending them,” Borger writes.
The war in Ukraine has reached its 351st day.
Source: Today IT
Karen Clayton is a seasoned journalist and author at The Nation Update, with a focus on world news and current events. She has a background in international relations, which gives her a deep understanding of the political, economic and social factors that shape the global landscape. She writes about a wide range of topics, including conflicts, political upheavals, and economic trends, as well as humanitarian crisis and human rights issues.
