Clashes are intensifying in eastern Ukraine. The Institute for War Studies (ISW), a US think tank, reported today that the long-awaited Russian offensive has begun, and Ukraine’s governor of Luhansk is also talking about a large-scale attack. Russia expert Bob Deen of the Clingendael Institute puts this message into perspective. “It is no longer possible on a given day. The attack began secretly a week or two ago.”
Deen acknowledges that the Russians are advancing on all fronts. “But the really tough challenge is still ahead.” His colleague Peter Wijninga, from the Center for Strategic Studies (HCSS) in The Hague, sees every sign that the struggle is heating up and the Russians are gaining momentum. Concentration, he says, indicates “something is going on.”
What the Russians did on the northern front is closest to the attack. In the Lugansk province, the Russian army took the initiative. Seeing that the Russians were massing a large number of soldiers there, Deen said, “The Ukrainians attacked there, now the Russians. This is remarkable,” he says. It’s a development that ISW has seen as well.
Residents of the Ukrainian village of Yampil flee the Bakhmut region after reports of Russian advances:
“The Russian offensive started in the province of Lugansk, but the Ukrainians manage to prevent the Russians from gaining territory. The Russian offensive there probably hasn’t really started yet,” he writes. The governor of the Luhansk region, Serhi Hajdaj, also talks about a major attack. He said on Ukrainian television today that Russian troops are trying to break through the defenses near the city of Kreminna.
Hajdaj said Russian troops were trying to advance west through the snow and forests towards the Ukrainian positions. “There is constant shooting. We see attacks almost every day now. Small Russian groups are trying to advance with the support of armored fighting vehicles and tanks.” According to the governor, they have not yet managed to break through the Ukrainian defenses.
Wijninga is recognizing this image: “The Russians are doing two things, they are tiring the Ukrainians and at the same time they are looking for weak spots in the defense.”
It is difficult to predict when the Russians will be able to force a breakthrough. Deen and Wijninga believe this is most likely to happen when the town of Bachmoet falls. The city has been fighting for months. After a possible fall, the Russian troops are released and these can then be deployed elsewhere.
Deen and Wijninga believe Bachmoet’s trial is now a matter of weeks. “The network shuts down around Bachmoet,” Wijninga says. Deen: “The Ukrainians turn Bachmoet into a kind of Mariupol. They’ve been claiming this for months. It has a lot of symbolic meaning to the Russians.”
Deadline in March
There are two main reasons why the Russians are now increasing the pressure for a main attack. President Putin sent a message to the commander of the Russian army that the whole of Donbass should be in Russian hands by March at the latest. Also “frost is still on the ground” so the tanks can be driven. “When spring comes, they get stuck,” Wijninga says. Despite this, tanks are no longer used for larger attacks.
Wijninga states that Commander-in-Chief Gerasimov still has work to do. “There is only one lane leading to the administrative border of the Luhansk province. It was there that the Russians made the most progress. But a reasonable area of the Donetsk province, one-third the size of the Netherlands, has not yet been taken.”
Wijninga says the Russians can’t do more. “Maybe two more deviations, but no more” on the southern front near Zaporizhia. He says that an attack on Ukraine from around the world, as on February 24, 2022, is no longer an option.
The two towns of Slovjansk and Kramatorsk in Donetsk province are currently the main target of the Russians. “This would be a huge loss for Ukrainians,” Deen says. He assumes that when the advancing Russians reach the end of their forces “as in August”, a Russian offensive will eventually “climax” with a Ukrainian attack.
Two analysts dare not predict how long the battlefield might fluctuate.
Source: NOS
Karen Clayton is a seasoned journalist and author at The Nation Update, with a focus on world news and current events. She has a background in international relations, which gives her a deep understanding of the political, economic and social factors that shape the global landscape. She writes about a wide range of topics, including conflicts, political upheavals, and economic trends, as well as humanitarian crisis and human rights issues.
