Ukraine, US freezes Zelensky: Weapons warning ahead of Russian offensive

The message jumps from Washington to Kiev: the United States cannot guarantee this level of assistance forever. In short, Ukraine has received all possible help to defend itself against Russia, from heavy artillery to fighter jets, but now the course of the war must be changed. Despite constant promises of support for Ukraine “for as long as it takes,” the first anniversary of the conflict is an opportunity for the United States to send a message to Kiev about the need to seize this crucial moment to change the course of the war, now that the peak of military supplies has arrived. That Washington, especially now, with a somewhat Republican-controlled Congress, cannot guarantee that they will always be at these levels.

“We will continue to try to make it clear that we cannot guarantee everything and everything forever”, explain US sources, underlining the administration’s “strong belief” that it will be difficult to obtain the same level of military and economic assistance from Congress in the future. “All that is needed refers to the duration of the conflict, not the amount of assistance,” the sources specify. For the Biden administration, the crucial moment will come in the coming weeks when, with the arrival of spring, Moscow will launch a new offensive, with Kiev responding by trying to reconquer the territories occupied by the Russians. To underline the delicacy of the moment, a large North American delegation is scheduled to arrive in Europe for the security conference that opens on Friday in Monaco, led by Vice President Kamala Harris and integrated by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and for Internal Security, Alejandro Mayorkas. And after Biden’s Monday mission to Poland, where he will deliver the speech on the anniversary of the war.

In addition to the mission’s official timeline, confidential contacts are underway with several senior administration officials – including Deputy National Security Advisor Jon Finer, Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman and Deputy Secretary of Defense Colin Kahl – who have been to Ukraine in recent weeks. . And even before that, CIA director William Burns had arrived in Kiev to explain to Volodymyr Zelensky what, according to US intelligence, are Moscow’s next attack plans. Biden and his cohorts aim to avoid any sign of defection or weakening of the Western alliance, to send a clear message of determination to Vladimir Putin. But some analysts warn that, given the situation on the ground, Russia or Ukraine are unlikely to gain a substantial military advantage in the foreseeable future.