Alerts are rising for a new large-scale Russian attack. According to intelligence sources, Moscow has begun deploying ships and submarines with tactical nuclear weapons in the Baltic Sea and is massing warplanes on the Ukrainian border. But the US is backing down. NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg’s press conference is expected in Brussels today. “Ukrainian forces are fighting step by step in Donbass, where the situation at the front remains extremely difficult,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wrote in his usual evening message to the country. Said.
No flights to Ukraine
The supply of fighter jets to Ukraine is “not in focus at the moment”. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said this in an interview with the broadcaster. Back. “If the Ukrainian skies remain safe for the next 3-4 months, we can talk about all the next steps,” said Pistorius, emphasizing that the priority is to ensure the security of the airspace. with enough ammo.
Kiev has been seeking American-made F-16 multi-role fighter jets for weeks, starting minutes after the Leopard 2 announcement. But training Ukrainians to use F-16s is much more difficult than artillery or tanks. at least six months: equipped with a number of improvements (high-impact radars, high-quality guided ammunition and several high-tech functions) not found on the Ukrainian Mig-29s. Now the Russians can replace downed assets and repair damaged planes, albeit with difficulty. Although there is no domestic production of aircraft and spare parts, Ukraine cannot replace them. First of all, Kiev cannot afford to lose too many pilots whose training is worth far more than the aircraft itself. If the war continues throughout 2023, it will still be talked about a lot and everything shows that it will continue.
Meanwhile, Moscow has resumed, for the first time since the end of the Cold War, to deploy ships carrying tactical nuclear weapons, the same type of missiles that it threatened to launch at Ukraine: this is revealed by the Norwegian intelligence service in its annual report. “The main part of the Russian nuclear potential is in the submarines and surface ships of the Northern Fleet,” wrote 007 from Oslo. “A particularly serious threat in the various operational scenarios in which NATO countries may be involved”. In the times of the USSR, ships with nuclear warheads passed frequently in the Baltic, then Moscow had stopped nearly thirty years ago. “Russia is expected to upgrade its atomic arsenal.”
“Russia is stacking planes on the Ukrainian border”
Western intelligence agencies claim that Russia is piling planes on the Ukrainian border, a sign that Moscow could use these planes to support a ground attack: he wrote. Finance Times. Almost a year after its start, the war may enter a new phase. Therefore, Western countries provided Ukraine with air defense assets and ammunition to contain the possibility of a wave of air strikes. Two officials reported that intelligence from NATO countries had determined that Moscow had deployed fixed-wing aircraft on the Ukrainian border.
“It’s absolutely clear that we have a short window of time and quite specific needs to help the Ukrainians prepare for an attack,” a senior US administration official told the FT, describing the Russian military as “depleted.” ground forces and this indicates that Moscow will “go to air strikes”. Moscow has used its aircraft on a limited basis since the beginning of the war. According to intelligence assessments, the Russian air force “may be pretty well protected” right now, according to a NATO diplomat. Therefore, it is expected to be used to “try to disable the Ukrainian air defense.”
For now, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has lowered the alarm. “As for whether Russia is amassing its planes for a major attack, we don’t see that at the moment.
“We know that Russia has a considerable number of aircraft in its inventory and many capabilities are left behind,” the Ukrainian Defense Support Group said at a press conference in Brussels.
The first two stages of the war
In recent weeks, Kiev intelligence has repeatedly said that Putin will order his forces to seize Donbass before the end of spring. According to various observers, the Moscow offensive could level up in less than ten days, marking February 23, the Day of Defenders of the Fatherland of Russia, which celebrates the military. Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, who is one of President Zelensky’s closest men and is responsible for files such as relations with the oligarchs and the fight against corruption, thinks the same way “Russians they love” to tie everything to a striking history. Putin’s birthday, October 7; December 22, the centennial of the USSR; then New Year. Now February 24″. In Kiev, they seem to be waiting for the new Russian offensive to begin on the 24th. Are there accurate intelligence signals? Danilov recently said, “Of course yes, and they are very clear. But we are prepared,” he said. “The war will not last five or ten years – the reliable collaborator of the Ukrainian president continues – The world today is fast. There will be elections in many countries in 2024 and the election campaign will start next summer. Our war will also be involved indirectly: I want to see with my own eyes who will say that they support Putin in the US, the UK or other countries. And there are many other factors affecting the war, and everything that happens in the world is connected: Putin alone is locked in a dead corner”.
The first phase of the all-out invasion of Russia resulted in a fiasco for Putin’s forces, who were repulsed from the north, then from the Kharkiv region in September, and then again from Kherson province in the north and Kherson province west of the Dnieper. November. The second phase was an attempt at a war of attrition in which thousands of Russian mercenaries and convicts were sacrificed for small territorial gains around the cities of Bakhmut and Soledar, with mass rocket attacks on power plants, electricity transmission infrastructure and water systems.
This second phase of the conflict was almost as complete a defeat as the first. Russia has indeed depleted most of its cruise missile arsenal, and although Ukraine’s power grid is battered, the lights are on everywhere and Ukraine’s will to fight is not extinguished, albeit with limitations.
third stage
Phase three is about to begin, as written. Guardian Journalist Julian Borger: “An all-out war in which combined weapons (mechanized infantry, artillery, air power and possibly waterborne assault) are used to overcome specific positions to gain a decisive advantage. The world has not seen anything like it since the Iran war. Iraq in the 80s Europe has not seen anything like it since the Second World War”. The death toll in the Bosnian War has already exceeded 100,000. “Launching a major offensive in this next phase of the war would be a massive undertaking, fraught with risks for both sides of the conflict. Attacking fixed positions has always cost lives and machines more than defending them,” writes Borger.
LDara Masicot, a former Pentagon analyst, says Russia’s ability to sustain large-scale offensive maneuvers right now will be “really tested”. “They tried last year and it didn’t go well and the forces they left on the field are not that professional and the equipment is not that good.” However Even poorly managed, poorly equipped and poorly trained troops, even in sufficient numbers, can be overwhelming in a country with a fully functioning war economy and repressed internal opposition.
Meanwhile, the fierce struggle for Bakhmut continues on the field in Donbass. According to various analysts, in the coming weeks Kiev may try to strike wherever it believes the weakest and most fragile of the Russian lines, and this may be above all in the east, in the Luhansk region, where the enemy troops are more tired and weary. However, other analysts agree completely on one thing: The Kremlin can afford to throw enormous numbers of people into war and inflict enormous losses without real large-scale social consequences. Right now.
Source: Today IT
Karen Clayton is a seasoned journalist and author at The Nation Update, with a focus on world news and current events. She has a background in international relations, which gives her a deep understanding of the political, economic and social factors that shape the global landscape. She writes about a wide range of topics, including conflicts, political upheavals, and economic trends, as well as humanitarian crisis and human rights issues.
