The end of the war, which began on February 24, 2022, is not on the horizon. The US Department of Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), the most authoritative military intelligence agency for foreign countries, considers it unlikely that peace talks between Moscow and Kiev will begin this year. according to the reports Washington Post According to a document allegedly containing Dia’s assessments, “negotiations to end the conflict by 2023 are highly unlikely in all the scenarios examined”, citing classified American documents that ended up on the internet. According to the US intelligence agency, the war will continue into 2024 because both sides “refuse to negotiate for an end to the conflict”: the “most likely scenario” is that neither Russia nor Ukraine will gain a decisive advantage.
14 months of war and no end in sight
The operation, which Putin declared as Moscow’s “special military operation” that should last several days, turned into a 14-month war of attrition. Russia throws waves of soldiers and mercenaries into endless wars around cities like Bakhmut and Vuhledar. Countries Westerners will send tanks There is talk of new spring attacks on Ukraine and the front line clearly unchanged. “Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia. US President Joe Biden is never from Poland after Zelensky’s unannounced visit in March.
It’s a type of conflict that “we didn’t think we’d see again”, said Margaret Macmillan, a war historian and professor emeritus at Oxford University. According to a very comprehensive analysis Al Jazeera youA clear defeat on both sides in this war is unlikely. A more likely scenario is a protracted conflict that leaves both armies exhausted but unwilling to admit defeat, resulting in a frozen conflict or ultimately an uneasy truce. The possibility of a quick end to hostilities is in any case remote. But let’s go in order.
The war in Ukraine reached international proportions when Russian armored troops crossed the border in February 2022. only included in two countries” reads the website of the Qatar satellite network. The United States and its allies hastened to provide assistance vital to Ukraine’s self-defense capability. Previous wars, such as the eight-year Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, also depended on such foreign aid.
“At various points in this conflict Russia has appeared in a similar position to Iran, and Ukraine partially reflects Iraq’s position in this war,” he said. Al Jazeera Jeremy Morris is professor of global studies at Aarhus University in Denmark. “This war was basically fought for land and resources. Western weapons helped Iraq gain early successes on the battlefield against the much larger Iran, where artillery units attacking Iraqi formations had to resort to more costly tactics at the risk of inflicting heavy losses in hopes of defeating the enemy.
Comparisons with the Iran-Iraq war and the Korean war
Of course, there is an important difference: Iraq, unlike Ukraine, started this war. However, Western weapons in Ukraine were equally effective in stopping the Russian advance. Theoretically, this gives the West an influence on the direction of the war. The West can deliver even more advanced weapons faster, in the hopes of convincing Russia – as Ukraine has demanded from the very beginning – that it cannot win.
Indeed, Macmillan pointed out that sometimes external pressure is the most important factor in ending an open conflict and getting the warring parties to talk. Referring to NATO’s 1999 bombing of Serbia, the official told Doha Network, “Serbia’s war against Kosovo ended because foreign powers got involved.” ButRussia is a nuclear power, unlike Iran and Serbia. It has a civil war machine and enormous reserves of manpower and resources, and Morris believes Russia has a good chance of sustaining the conflict for years.
“Russia’s living standards may collapse, but they will never be in a position like North Korea – Morris continues – and in any case, even North Koreans have endured the conditions in which they lived for more than 50 years.”
Kyiv will decide for itself. Branislav Slantchev, professor of politics and war negotiation expert at the University of California, says the idea that Ukraine can be forced into any peace by foreign powers is “wrong”. CIn his view, there is little the West can do to prevent Ukrainians from trying to reclaim all their country’s now occupied territory from Russia. Ukraine also knows that any Western warning to Kiev to stop arms supplies or end financial support is unconvincing: “This kind of threat is not credible,” said Slantchev, “because the Ukrainians know it’s in the West’s interest.” Don’t let it crash.” Ukrainians will decide. And today there is no opening for negotiations.
The odds of Putin being sacked are extremely unlikely.
“This is Putin’s war,” Macmillan said. Some observers have suggested that continued defeats on the battlefield could lead to the president’s downfall. After all, Russia’s defeats in the Crimean War in the 19th century and in Japan and Afghanistan in the 20th century caused profound internal changes. But who knows if that will actually happen, and who knows when.
For analysts, the likelihood of Putin being sacked today is extremely low, and his successor is even less likely to be less aggressive.
The scenario in which various experts seem a little more optimistic is something like a demilitarized zone between Ukraine and Russian-controlled areas, or Korea with a sustained conflict that could lead to an uneasy and fragile ceasefire. But not in 2023. The war in Ukraine will continue for a long time.
Source: Today IT
Karen Clayton is a seasoned journalist and author at The Nation Update, with a focus on world news and current events. She has a background in international relations, which gives her a deep understanding of the political, economic and social factors that shape the global landscape. She writes about a wide range of topics, including conflicts, political upheavals, and economic trends, as well as humanitarian crisis and human rights issues.
