Because both Zelensky and Putin can lose in Bakhmut

Russian flags now appear to be flying in the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut as a sign of victory as a war has raged for 9 months that has left tens of thousands of victims on the field. A battle where Volodymyr Zelensky deliberately raised the stakes and could turn out to be a bad start for the now long-awaited counterattack. But possible Russian success in this small, now-abandoned center of Donbass could turn out to be a defeat for Vladimir Putin on the domestic front as well.

Wagner’s role

In fact, the Moscow banner was brought to Bakhmut by mercenaries from the Wagner group, whose leader, according to various sources, Yevgeny Prigozhin, is said to be on a collision course with the head of the Kremlin. Previously called “Putin’s cook” (referring to the generous public contracts for the caterer), he may now be the tsar’s first domestic enemy. The Wagner group already announced yesterday that it had conquered Bakhmut, but it took several hours for Moscow to officially confirm the declarations of Prigozhin’s men.

After a short note from the Russian Ministry of Defense, it was Putin himself who wanted to congratulate Wagner’s men. Appreciation that did not seem to soften the leader of the group of mercenaries, who relied on a voice message on Telegram to mock the Kremlin: “During the capture of Artyomovsk (Bakhmut’s Russian name, ed.), almost none (Russian, ed.) army helped us. did,” said Prigozhin. In other words, if Bakhmut falls, it’s Wagner’s reputation, not Putin’s.

The yellow in the fall of Bakhmut

The conditional is imperative: there is still a veil of mystery surrounding the supposed takeover of the city. Speaking during his visit to the G7 meeting in Hiroshima, Zelenskiy seemed to admit defeat: “There is nothing left in Bakhmut, they demolished all the buildings. For now, Bakhmut is only in our hearts,” he replied to reporters. . A confession that was later denied by the Ukrainian president: “To date, Bakhmut has not been occupied by the Russian Federation: these words have no two or three interpretations”. Soon, sources in the Kiev army also wanted to deny that the city had been captured by the Russians: “Although we now control an insignificant part of Bakhmut, the importance of its defense does not lose its importance” and “We continue,” General Oleksandr Syrskyi said, “to advance on the flanks on the outskirts of the city.” ” said.

Whatever the actual situation on the field, there is absolutely nothing but rubble in Bakhmut today. And the troops of the Wagner group have a clear advantage in controlling this zone of territory. Another issue is to determine whether the taking of the city will have significant effects on the future of the conflict. So far, strategists of both Kiev and Moscow have underlined that Bakhmut was of little importance on its own: its importance, if anything, was its location, which could allow Russian troops to move towards the two major cities more easily than they had in a long time. determined by. Coveted in the Donetsk region – Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.

Zelensky’s stubbornness

Faced with losses on the field of Ukrainian troops, several Pentagon and NATO experts have suggested in recent months to abandon Bakhmut’s trenches in Kiev and move the resistance elsewhere, defending the Donbass regions with greater chances of success. of Ukraine. According to Zelensky, however, over time, Bakhmut’s defense acquired a political rather than a strict military value. On the one hand, continuing the resistance means continuing to weaken the Russian army. On the other hand, the Ukrainian leader has repeatedly expressed fears that Moscow’s victory in Bakhmut might push the international community, as well as the Ukrainian establishment, to press for a peace agreement.

The US’s last green light to send F-16s to Ukraine to carry out the counterattack convinced Zelenskiy to leave Bakhmut’s stronghold without having to enter into any peace talks with Moscow before regaining control of the territory lost during the conflict. it could be. On the other hand, while Kiev says it is ready to launch a counterattack, the defeat risks negatively affecting the morale of the soldiers. Rather, unlike Russia, which, after several months of stalemate, can claim the first conquest of the field.

Putin knows this and is propagating it to make the most of Bakhmut’s capture. It will also be important for the Kremlin leader to downplay Wagner’s role. Prigozhin’s political influence in Russia is growing, and this is not good news for the Russian president. Perhaps Putin can support Zelensky for once in the hope that the resistance against Bakhmut will continue for a while. Enough time to reduce Wagner’s firepower on the Ukrainian field.

Source: Today IT

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