How can attacks on Russian soil change the war in Ukraine?

It is said that the militias, which have raided the Belgorod region in Russia, starting from Ukraine, are ready to launch new attacks. Denis Kapustin, believed to be the commander of the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), said he will have to prepare for further raids by the Freedom to Russia legion, Vladimir Putin’s men and other militias that claimed responsibility for Monday’s raid. “I think you’ll continue to see us on that side of the border,” he told reporters yesterday on the Ukrainian side of the border. The man, a former neo-Nazi hooligan, said, “I can’t explain these coming things, I can’t even explain the direction. The border is pretty long. Once again, there will be a point where things heat up.” presented under the pseudonym White Rex.

While such attacks on Russian territory certainly don’t worry the nation’s general security too much, they can help change the face of the conflict at a very sensitive moment, when Volodymyr Zelensky’s Ukraine is about to launch its long war. -A counterattack was expected to retake part of the conquered territories from Moscow. Events in the Belgorod region, first of all, confirm the ability of the Ukrainian side to conduct raids on the territory of the Federation. The last major raid in March also led to the short-term seizure of some public buildings in the Bryansk region. But Monday’s attack on the settlements of Glotovo, Kozinka and Gora-Podol was of a different scale, and the number of forces involved was much larger and seemed better equipped even with armored vehicles, which forced the Russian troops. to field helicopter warships as well.

“These attacks are a domestic security concern for Russia and very disgraceful in terms of image because it is an attack on its own soil,” Rupert Jones, a retired British Major General and military analyst, told Sky. From the Ukrainian perspective, these raids are significant because they “divert attention from Bakhmut, but above all they divert the attention of the Russians as the counterattack is being prepared, and Kiev wants Moscow to turn its eyes away from Russia,” he said. The likely place where the attack will begin.” Some experts said the attack was almost certainly coordinated with the Ukrainian military, although Zelenskiy denies any role in the attack. Neil Melvin, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), said: “The Ukrainians are trying to push the Russians in different directions to open the gates. it’s working. “The Russians are forced to send reinforcements,” he said.

The attack took place away from the epicenter of the fighting in the Donbass region in eastern Ukraine and about 160 kilometers from the front lines in the northern Kharkiv region. “The Russians will have to respond to this situation and deploy troops there, and then they will have to deploy large numbers of troops along the border area, even in places where the Ukrainians may not come,” Melvin said. “This is really a chance to do two things. First, to stretch the Russians, to worry about the possibility of rebellion among their own people. But secondly, to force them to disperse their troops,” said Mark Galeotti. Author of several books on London-based consulting firm Mayak Intelligence and the Russian military. To him, the offensive looks like an operation to “shape” the Ukrainian battlefield in terms of the anticipated Kiev counteroffensive.

Even for Galeotti, these militias that “hope to somehow contribute to the fall of the Putin regime” are also “not independent forces. They are controlled by Ukrainian military intelligence”. Zelensky’s assistant, Mykhailo Podolyak, reiterated that Kiev would have nothing to do with the operation, and said the United States “does not allow or encourage” Ukraine’s attacks on Russian territory, but that Kiev will decide how the operation is conducted. operations, military operations. Washington also promised to investigate reports that rebel Russians possessed US weapons. “I know exactly where I got the weapons from. Unfortunately not from Western partners.” Black market.

“I think I explained that Western military aid is unfortunately back and forth, looted. For example, in Bakhmut, I know that many American armored vehicles were looted by Russian forces,” he said. The commander of the RDK militia declared that Ukraine will only support them with information, oil, food and medicine. “And of course the Ukrainian army took care of our wounded. But more than that complicates things.” Ukrainian comrades and friends will assist us in the planning.”

For its part, Kiev threw a thorn in the Kremlin using the same rhetoric that Russia used during the 2014 annexation of Crimea. Likewise, Zelensky Podolyak’s deputy blamed “underground guerrilla groups” made up of Russian citizens for the Belgorod raid and said, “As you know, tanks are sold in any Russian military store.” The phrase seemed to echo Putin’s response when asked about the presence of men wearing unmarked Russian military uniforms in Crimea in 2014: “You can go to a store and buy any uniform.” Ukrainians spoke on social media of what they called the “Belgorod People’s Republic” in clear reference to the pro-Russian People’s Republics created in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine.

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Source: Today IT