The Right continues to advance in Europe, not only in polls, but also in the latest election results at national and local level. After the victory of the centre-right New Democracy party in the general elections in Greece (and the good result of the ultra-nationalists of the Greek Solution) came the clear endorsement of the People’s Party in the local elections in Spain and the endorsement of Vox in the elections. The third force of the Iberian country. In Germany, the latest polls not only show the Cdu-Csu duo topped, but also show the Afd overtaking the Greens, the second power in the Social Democrat Olaf Scholz government. This is an overtaking that adds to some of the strength of the progress in the consensus of right-wing parties and movements: opposition to the European Union’s environmental policies, namely the Green deal’s package of measures.
right convergence
Of course, the tough fight against illegal immigration is still one of the main war horses for moderates, conservatives and sovereigntists. However, the reason why the variegated universe of the European right has found touchpoints that could upset the balance in the EU is the ecological transition and its repercussions on businesses and workers. Especially since the countdown has just begun for the next European elections scheduled for June 2024. Popular parties led by the German Manfred Weber, who have been expected for some time by the maneuvers of the EPP in the European Parliament, closer than ever to the conservatives of the ECR, the EU party of Giorgia Meloni and the Poles of Pis, but also the Spaniards of Vox and the Greek Solution. We should not forget the Swedish Democrats, who have become the indispensable part of the centre-right government in Stockholm, which has recently won the polls from being the country’s second power.
According to polls collected by Politico in 27 member states, if we go to vote tomorrow to renew the European Parliament, Meloni’s ECR will get 80 seats, about twenty more than in 2019. Italia) about 163 seats according to the last elections. But the growing right-wing trend Weber is trying to instill in the main EU party seems to be bearing fruit and may lead to regaining ground lost in recent years. Viktor Orban’s party was expelled from the EPP even without Fidesz.
Identity and Democracy (ID), the “third pillar” of the European centre-right, which includes Matteo Salvini’s Lega, Marine Le Pen’s Unification nationalist and AfD’s Germans, remains out of this strategy for now. The hypothesis of a broad right-wing alliance between the ECR and ID now seems to have faded, especially after the war in Ukraine, which exacerbated divisions between the Polish Pis and pro-party, Europe’s most anti-Russian party. The sympathy for Putin, which has been repeatedly expressed by Id members in the past, has been barely concealed lately.
button room
The goal for the ECR is to get into the control room that governs the European Union. The same EPP is in the room to date, with the European Socialist Party (PES) and Renew Europe liberals (and French President Emmanuel Macron). One member of the alliance that manages the Eurochamber and represents the so-called “Ursula majority” (named after the chairman of the Commission, von der Leyen) is the European Green party, albeit in the form of outside support. They are currently accredited with just 40 seats against the 68 seats conquered in 2019. Ursula’s majority is less and less, and the civil war within the EPP is weakening her further: yes, because Weber and von der Leyen are clearly at odds, although both the Germans and both members of the union are Democrats. First, with the latter starting to choose the Green deal on which he built his authority.
Macron and Weber’s moves
Weber is not supported by EU governments alone, but only by party-led governments such as the Polish executive and now the Italian executive, which have always been critical of Brussels’ ecological measures. Germany and France are also hampering Europe’s climate ambitions. The most striking example so far has been Berlin’s last-minute reversal, influenced by the Liberal Democrats of the Fdp (third leg of the Scholz government), to a regulation banning the sale of petrol and diesel cars, which was eventually approved. an addition that could delay the farewell to the combustion engine. Expressing disappointment with Germany’s car move, Paris sided with skeptics of the Green deal, soon after President Macron asked the EU to “stop” the progress of its ecological strategy.
Macron’s “brake” came just as the two main texts for the future of European agricultural food came to the discussion table in Brussels; The law aimed at eliminating pesticides and the law on restoration of nature aimed at reducing land and sea areas are designed for the activities of farmers and fishermen. These are the two texts in which the EPP has previously declared its opposition. The rapprochement between centre-right and liberals of Renew Europe (certainly Macron’s group, but also the group of the German FDP) on the nature restoration law has already had a double success: the Agriculture and Fisheries European Parliament commissions have rejected the proposal.
Attack on the green deal
The curbing of the “agri-food” Green deal (that is, the Farm to fork, which has been renamed as its corollary), is likely to attract converts among vote-seeking European parties. The Dutch example triggered the alarm: here the newly formed Bbb farmers’ party swept up the last local elections, putting pressure on the government of liberal Mark Rutte (another Macron ally). The Bbb was born among Dutch farmers who for months had strongly opposed (and even violently demonstrated) the government plan demanded by Brussels to reduce intensive agriculture in the country.
The echo of the protests in the Netherlands spread to Europe, where major agricultural organizations fear the gradual implementation of the measures outlined by Farm to Fork. Another striking example comes from Spain, where PP and Vox have struggled to find support in what was once the stronghold of the left, Andalusia: Here, the region’s main industry, intensive agriculture, is dealing with drought. however, not intending to reduce water consumption and instead wanting plans to control the exploitation of water resources, Sanchez launched a challenge to the central government and Brussels. Inspired by this discontent, the PP’s People’s Party and Vox’s conservatives first won a majority in the regional government and conquered Seville last Sunday.
new balances
Continuing to heal from the loss of consensus over pension reform, Macron has no intention of losing any more ground and finding himself mourning a defeat in favor of Marine Le Pen in the next European election. This is exactly why the French leader is more adamantly to the right: an invitation to a “pause” in the Green deal, on the one hand, but also stricter immigration rules could be the key to his recovery. in surveys.
All these movements are beginning to outline a possible major European alliance moving from liberals from the EPP to Meloni’s conservative right. According to current estimates, the unprecedented trio will have the numbers to win a majority in the European Parliament, if not large enough to put people to sleep peacefully. While the socialists have announced their intention to end historic cooperation with the EPP in Brussels, many still view the prospect of a centre-left opposition to the Eurochamber as political fiction. Whatever the balances after the June 2024 elections, the possibility of changing the balances in the EU’s control rooms is increasing. And the ecological transition of the continent may pay the price above all else.
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Source: Today IT
Karen Clayton is a seasoned journalist and author at The Nation Update, with a focus on world news and current events. She has a background in international relations, which gives her a deep understanding of the political, economic and social factors that shape the global landscape. She writes about a wide range of topics, including conflicts, political upheavals, and economic trends, as well as humanitarian crisis and human rights issues.
