This Week’s Keys in Latin America by Daniel Zovatto

Dr. Zovatto

MEXICO: MORENA expands its territorial holdings

On Sunday, June 4, two important state elections were held in Mexico.

1. In the state of Mexico City (Edomex), Delfina Gomez, the candidate of MORENA – the party of the president of AMLO – ended 94 years of PRI hegemony in this extremely important state and was left with a jewel in the crown: 12.5 million voters. The participation rate was low, between 48-50%.

2. In the state of Coahuila, the opposition coalition in favor of Mexico (PRI, PAN and PRD) won the gubernatorial election with Manolo Jiménez (from PRI) as its candidate. Morena’s divisions and tensions as her partners took their toll.

Now, the time to determine presidential candidates from each political sector will be accelerated ahead of next year’s elections, starting with MORENA – according to polls and sub-national results – with an advantage by 2024.

Since 2018 (the year AMLO became president of Mexico) there have been 32 gubernatorial elections, and the ruling party – MORENA – is left with a victory in 23 states along with its allies (24 if San Luis de Potosi is added), more than double than the united opposition (total 9). The PRI and PRD are the parties most affected by the MORENA offensive, the former losing 11 governorships and the latter 4. For their part, PAN was able to keep.

As Luis Carlos Ugalde points out: this Monday begins, politically, the 2024 electoral process with the following characteristics: 1) with the empowerment of MORENA, 2) with Claudia Scheinbaum Pardo, head of government of Mexico City, benefited from the results in EdoMex. ; 3) with the PRI as the fourth political force based on the ruled population; 4) with MovCiudadanoMX as third and 5) no opposition.

Panama: 2024 general election primaries begin

Yesterday, Sunday, former President Ricardo Martinelli’s Realisando Metas (RM) party held an internal election to choose its presidential candidate in the May 2024 general election. USA, as a “significantly corrupt” person, says he is innocent and that these court cases are “political persecution” by his enemies to prevent him from becoming president again – he was elected by a large majority (96% of the votes cast), but in the elections high absentionism was noted: participation amounted to only 25% of the electoral list of the party of the Republic of Moldova.

COLOMBIA: Petro’s government is trembling

What started as a simple private dispute between Petro’s chief of staff – Laura Sarabia – with her nanny, escalated into illegal wiretaps, the loss of large amounts of cash, public accusations with the former Colombian ambassador to Venezuela – Armando Benedetti – and now to explosive audio recordings of possible illegal funding presidential campaign and accusations against other government officials. In the course of the escalation, Petro loses two bishops – both will leave the government – and this will have serious consequences for the government, which has lost its initial reformist momentum. From a legal point of view, investigations will begin at the Prosecutor’s Office, the Prosecutor General’s Office and the Strategic Offensive Forces. From a political standpoint, Peter’s initial legislative skating rink in Congress (which enabled him to approve tax reform) is shrinking and in danger of losing support. Likewise, these accusations of corruption within your government could hurt your coalition’s chances in October’s regional elections. Finally, the scandal is already on the wane of presidential approval, as evidenced by today’s Datexco-La W poll with 60% disapproval and only 26% support for Petro management.

ECUADOR: There will be a new president in 2024

Late last week, President Guillermo Lasso confirmed that he would not run in early general elections on August 20, so Ecuador would have a new president in the coming months, as well as a new National Assembly. Thus, Lasso becomes the second Latin American president who, in recent months, due to the strong deterioration of his popularity, decides not to seek re-election (the previous one was the Argentine Alberto Fernandez). Due to the busy electoral calendar of this anticipated process, parties will have until June 10 to inform the CNE of the results of their internal democratic processes in order to elect presidential and parliamentary candidates. A level of fragmentation similar to that of the 2021 elections is expected, with about 10 presidential candidates to be nominated. At the moment, there are already 8 names in circulation. One of the questions is who will be the candidate from the political force “Civil Revolution” of former President Rafael Correa.

GUATEMALA: 3 weeks until first round, uncertainty reigns

With only 3 weeks to go before the Guatemalan general election, with the first round on June 25, the campaign is taking place in an atmosphere of uncertainty and irregularity, in an atmosphere of distrust and early revelations of fraud. After banning three presidential candidates who were among the most eligible (Telma Cabrera, Roberto Arcu and Carlos Pineda), citizens must choose among 22 other eligible couples. Polls reflect this uncertainty by presenting disparate results and placing Sandra Torres, Zuri Rios and Edmond Mulet in the top three places. The next polls should provide an indication of where the votes that were originally supposed to go to the three banned candidates are migrating, or, conversely, we will see an increase in the number of undecideds as a prelude to an increase in abstention or invalid votes. A recent MES-PT report indicates that questions about electoral institutions are on the rise, making the political scenario even more challenging in the face of what is expected to be a very tight and contentious election. The most likely scenario is a vote to punish the government (pro-government candidate Manuel Conde does not rise in the polls) and the need to determine the presidency in the second round.

CHILE: the path to a new constitutional text

On June 7, the new Constitutional Council (CC) will begin its work, which will take as a basis the draft prepared by the Commission of 24 experts to develop a draft of a new constitutional text. According to the results of the elections on May 7 (election of constitutional advisers), right-wing political forces will receive a majority in the Central Committee, 23 seats from the Republican Party (former presidential candidate José Antonio Cast), 11 from Chile. Seguro (UDI, RN and Evópoli) and the left – “Unity for Chile” – will have only 16. The new text, which is the result of discussions in the Central Committee, will be voted on in a visiting plebiscite on December 17th.

Meanwhile, last week’s Public Account speech by President Gabriel Boric was positively received by the public as his favor increased by 10% in the latest CADEM poll to 41%, the highest in a year.